Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
052 FXUS65 KFGZ 020344 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 844 PM MST Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop each afternoon through Wednesday, before drier and warmer conditions set in for the holiday weekend. && .UPDATE...A few thunderstorms have developed over the Four Corners region this evening. As a result, added thunderstorms chances in extreme northeastern Arizona through the late evening hours. This activity should diminish after midnight. Otherwise, the current forecast is on track with no major updates required. && .PREV DISCUSSION /411 PM MST/...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have developed mainly along and south of I-40 this afternoon moving towards the east-northeast at about 10 to 15 mph. Given the abundant moisture from the surface to the mid-levels, the potential for flooding remains the main threat from any of these storms during this time. According to updated hi-res guidance, storm coverage will likely increase over the next few hours, spreading across much of northern Arizona. Showers and storms look to linger through the early evening hours before tapering after sunset. For Tuesday and Wednesday, expect the chances for precipitation to decrease as temperatures begin to increase, all thanks to a building ridge of high pressure just off the West Coast. Mentionable to chance of POPs remain in the forecast for Tuesday afternoon, confined to areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim. As the high strengthens towards the west, west-northwesterly flow becomes more enhanced, forcing moisture towards the south and east. By Wednesday, slight chances (15-20%) for storms are in the forecast for the same locations as Tuesday with a further increase in west-northwest winds, 15-25 mph. As we head into the holiday weekend, confidence has become strong in a drying and warming trend persisting through at least Sunday. The high pressure system mentioned previously is the main reason for these trends as much, if not all, of the ensemble guidance available indicates this high pressure moving onshore by Friday, then migrating slowly eastward through the weekend. For Sunday into Monday, long range guidance has this high centered over the southern Great Basin with enhanced north to northwest flow remaining in place over Arizona and New Mexico. Chances for showers and thunderstorms become nonexistent during this time as temperatures return to 5-10 degrees above average by Thursday. Afternoon humidity is forecast to be quite low with teens to single digits likely each day. Good thing for the recent rains as fuels are not quite as dry as they were a few weeks ago across northern Arizona. By the middle of next week, this high pressure ridge looks to continue migrating eastward gradually becoming centered over much of the western half of the country and strengthening. Depending on the overall strength of the high and its positioning, monsoon moisture could try to return by this time. Both the EPS and GEFS show PWAT values gradually increasing by the middle of next week, which is a good sign. Hopefully this long term trend continues and the Four Corners High moves in position. && .AVIATION...Tuesday 02/00Z through Wednesday 03/00Z...Scattered thunderstorms and TEMPO MVFR conditions along and east of I-17 and south of I-40 will gradually diminish around 02Z Tuesday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop again primarily near the White Mountains region Tuesday afternoon. Winds may be gusty and erratic near thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over northern Arizona through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Wednesday 03/00Z through Friday 05/00Z...Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the Mogollon Rim Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions forecast over northern Arizona Thursday. Primarily VFR conditions are forecast over northern Arizona. && .FIRE WEATHER...This evening through Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms will decrease each day and shift southeast. Outside of thunderstorms and outflow activity, expect daytime southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph. Thursday through Saturday...Dry conditions Thursday and Friday with a pronounced warming trend. A few storms could return to the White Mountains on Saturday. Winds generally light, but taking on more of a northeasterly direction by Friday and Saturday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...TM/LaGuardia AVIATION...TM FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff