Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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798 FXUS63 KFGF 081452 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 952 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening. Tuesday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with lightning being the main hazard. - Heat builds in for Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 80s and 90s along with humidity. && .UPDATE... Issued at 952 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Very quiet morning with a few scattered clouds in the northern Red River Valley as well as west central MN. Should see a few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms develop with daytime heating and a weak vort coming down out of Canada, but again shear is weak and severe impacts are not expected. Minimal changes to the going forecast. UPDATE Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Some light patchy fog has cropped up in some areas. However, no impacts are expected since visibility has been around 3 miles or more for the most part. Expecting the fog to burn off in the next couple hours. CAMS look to develop some isolated showers starting in the late afternoon early evening timeframe. Main threat still looks to be lightning with these weak thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...Synopsis... Today the main upper level trough is moving over the Great lakes with another low migrating into the lower portions of Minnesota. Today`s temperatures are in the high 70`s to low 80`s with mostly clear to partially cloudy skies. This will allow for optimal heating to reach convective temperature and allow some isolated garden variety thunderstorms to pop up in the late afternoon and early evening with showers to persist into the overnight period. Bulk shear is still 20-30knots for today and Tuesday. Model soundings are not depicting an environment for anything severe to pop up. Tuesday, the remnants of Beryl travels through the Central plains redirecting most of our coastal moisture before another weak shortwave passes through the northern plains later that evening and into Wednesday. Most of our moisture content will probably consist of whatever amount evapotransportation gives us from our farm fields. The valley could experience some gusty winds as the pressure gradient gets squeezed as the ridge moves into our region and the shortwave moves south into the Great lakes. Thursday through this weekend. The robust ridge makes its way over to the Northern Plains. The NWS heat risk has the CWA in a moderate on THursday and a Major for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures are forecasted to be in the 80`s and potentially 90`s in some areas by this weekend. Wear sunscreen, drink water, and eat light snacks to help subdue any impacts if you`re outside for any part of the day. Multiple shortwaves are depicted to migrate through the region at this time but overall impacts are uncertain. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR conditions are expected through today and tonight with the exception to any pop-up showers that may occur late this afternoon and evening (21z to 03z). The showers are going to be diurnally driven and dependent on reaching the convective temperature. Winds will also be fairly light at 10-15 knots. After 00z winds will shift from the north to the south. KBJI AWOS has not reported a METAR since 0515z so amend not sked will be issued in TAF. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MM/JR DISCUSSION...MM AVIATION...MM