Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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190 FXUS63 KFGF 051817 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 117 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend and into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely at this time. && .UPDATE... Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Isolated to scattered showers/storms have developed in the south/east and will continue through the daylight hours. Main threats with the stronger storms are lightning, brief heavy rain, and gusty winds. No forecast changes. Previous update Issued at 1022 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Cleaned up temps and sky cover some with much of the low clouds and patchy fog having dissipated. Winds still light and variable in the northeast, but expect to pick up some out of the north through mid-day. Forecast overall on track with CU development expected toward mid-day and isolated shower/storm activity expected to develop this afternoon with daytime heating. Previous update Issued at 659 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Updated earlier to expand fog mention to include areas from Crookston to Bemidji south to Fergus Falls and Elbow Lake. Fog will burn off easily and vsbys varies greatly even in the main fog area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...Synopsis... We continue to see a northwesterly flow aloft thanks to a deepened trough over the Hudson Bay and a strong ridge out in the southwestern United States. Out of this northwesterly flow we see multiple chances of shortwaves to move through bringing chances for precipitation. Clusters are converging on the ridge breaking down out west and shifting eastward late next week and into the following weekend. This would bring increased warmth and drier conditions. Currently this morning we have an upper level wave moving east of the area, with a few sprinkles in lakes country. Winds are light on the back edge of the precipitation, along with low dew point depressions. This has brought patchy dense fog at times within northwestern MN where winds are the lightest. This will continue through the mid morning hours before temperatures warm. ...Additional chances for precipitation... Out of the northwesterly flow aloft we have the chance to bring down smoke from the Yukon area of Canada where fires have been occuring. Smoke remains aloft, which may bring some hazy conditions this afternoon and again on Saturday. On top of the high level smoke we have numerous chances for shortwaves to move through the region this weekend and again early next week. There will be a chance for pop up showers this afternoon, with a few isolated thunderstorm chances. Storms would bring brief heavy rainfall and some lightning. The best chances for precipitation comes Saturday as a stronger upper level wave moves out of southern Canada. It translates across ND and into MN Saturday afternoon and evening. A few stronger storms are possible, but severe weather is not expected at this time. Another wave moves through Monday bringing more chances for precipitation. We start to see the signs of the pattern switching mid next week as clusters (80% of them) are showing the ridge out west breaking down. Temperatures begin to warm at the end of next week and into the following weekend. The rest of the clusters have us continuing in this pattern, with numerous chances for precipitation and average temperatures. However, the likelihood is that we see warming temperatures and drier weather end of next week and into the following weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Ligher north to northwest winds this afternoon to shift around to the west to southwest into Saturday. SCT-BKN MVFR to VFR CIGS this afternoon, then skies clear overnight, maybe some mid/high clouds into the area by early Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible near all TAF sites, but coverage too sparse to nail down potential/timing at any site so no mention in the TAFs currently. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...MJB/Riddle DISCUSSION...Spender AVIATION...MJB/Riddle