190
FXUS63 KFGF 051817
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
117 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend
  and into early next week. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely at
  this time.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Isolated to scattered showers/storms have developed in the
south/east and will continue through the daylight hours. Main
threats with the stronger storms are lightning, brief heavy
rain, and gusty winds. No forecast changes.

Previous update
Issued at 1022 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Cleaned up temps and sky cover some with much of the low clouds
and patchy fog having dissipated. Winds still light and variable
in the northeast, but expect to pick up some out of the north
through mid-day. Forecast overall on track with CU development
expected toward mid-day and isolated shower/storm activity
expected to develop this afternoon with daytime heating.


Previous update
Issued at 659 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Updated earlier to expand fog mention to include areas from
Crookston to Bemidji south to Fergus Falls and Elbow Lake. Fog
will burn off easily and vsbys varies greatly even in the main
fog area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...Synopsis...

We continue to see a northwesterly flow aloft thanks to a deepened
trough over the Hudson Bay and a strong ridge out in the
southwestern United States. Out of this northwesterly flow we see
multiple chances of shortwaves to move through bringing chances for
precipitation. Clusters are converging on the ridge breaking down
out west and shifting eastward late next week and into the following
weekend. This would bring increased warmth and drier conditions.

Currently this morning we have an upper level wave moving east of
the area, with a few sprinkles in lakes country. Winds are light on
the back edge of the precipitation, along with low dew point
depressions. This has brought patchy dense fog at times within
northwestern MN where winds are the lightest. This will continue
through the mid morning hours before temperatures warm.

...Additional chances for precipitation...

Out of the northwesterly flow aloft we have the chance to bring down
smoke from the Yukon area of Canada where fires have been
occuring. Smoke remains aloft, which may bring some hazy
conditions this afternoon and again on Saturday. On top of the
high level smoke we have numerous chances for shortwaves to move
through the region this weekend and again early next week.
There will be a chance for pop up showers this afternoon, with
a few isolated thunderstorm chances. Storms would bring brief
heavy rainfall and some lightning. The best chances for
precipitation comes Saturday as a stronger upper level wave
moves out of southern Canada. It translates across ND and into
MN Saturday afternoon and evening. A few stronger storms are
possible, but severe weather is not expected at this time.
Another wave moves through Monday bringing more chances for
precipitation.

We start to see the signs of the pattern switching mid next week as
clusters (80% of them) are showing the ridge out west breaking down.
Temperatures begin to warm at the end of next week and into the
following weekend. The rest of the clusters have us continuing in
this pattern, with numerous chances for precipitation and average
temperatures. However, the likelihood is that we see warming
temperatures and drier weather end of next week and into the
following weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Ligher north to northwest winds this afternoon to shift around
to the west to southwest into Saturday. SCT-BKN MVFR to VFR CIGS
this afternoon, then skies clear overnight, maybe some mid/high
clouds into the area by early Saturday. Isolated to scattered
showers/storms possible near all TAF sites, but coverage too
sparse to nail down potential/timing at any site so no mention
in the TAFs currently.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MJB/Riddle
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...MJB/Riddle