979
FXUS63 KFGF 192250
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
550 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
  weekend and into next week. Severe impacts are unlikely.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Have had a little shower and thunderstorm activity just to the
southeast of Baudette. With no 0-6km bulk shear, these storms
have stayed weak. There have also been a few showers and rumbles
of thunder down around Fergus Falls. Overall would expect a
weakening trend by sunset. A thin veil of upper level smoke will
also remain over the FA tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...Synopsis...

Shortwave rotating down into the Red River Valley producing not
too much in the way of convection so far, but there are some
glaciated clouds entering our far northern counties. Still some
decent instability and not much shear, so 20 to 30 percent
chances for garden variety showers and thunderstorms seems
reasonable. Most activity will taper off after sunset as we lose
heating and the main shortwave pushes off to the southeast,
although some of the CAMs keep some showers around Lake of the
Woods throughout the night. There has been some haze in the
upper levels on satellite and in the smoke models, so kept the
cloud cover no lower than 30 percent. At this point the near
surface concentrations look low so will keep out low level
mentions for now.

Not much changes with the overall pattern for the next few days
as north to northwest flow with several weak shortwaves coming
through. Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances, with weak
shear limiting severe potential to less than 5 percent.
Temperatures should be fairly seasonal, building to above
average values towards the end of the period as ridging arrives
for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

The only aviation impact for the next 24 hours would be any
thunder activity, if there is any at the TAF sites. It is
looking unlikely that any of the TAF sites will be impacted
this evening from convective activity. The next chance would be
Saturday afternoon, with the heating of the day again. Currently
anticipating precipitation chances to be about 60 percent by mid
afternoon along the highway 2 corridor, so mentioned a VCTS at
all sites but KFAR for now. KFAR has a much lower probability
for precipitation.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Godon