Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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341 FXUS63 KFGF 171849 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 149 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible each afternoon Friday through Monday. Severe weather is not anticipated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...Synopsis... Weak high pressure system will be in control today and Thursday. Low some low based cumulus development will continue each day as some low level moisture becomes trapped under the high pressure. Due to the low pressure system spinning over the great lakes the cumulus development will become more dense the further east into the northern half of Minnesota one can go. There may be a couple drops of rain as the clouds thicken in the afternoon but nothing measurable is expected. Friday through Tuesday A weak upper level wave is expected to transit through the Northern Plains Friday giving us the chance for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Looking at 850mb and 700mb Frontogensis and Temperature advection look to be marginal and insufficient to develop forcing strong enough to produce severe thunderstorms. Bulk Shear looks to remain around 20-30kts which is sufficient to develop the garden variety thunderstorms but not enough to really gives us the environment to sustain anything more than that. QPF Probs for greater than 0.25 inches is than 30 percent or lower. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR conditions will predominantly continue through the TAF period. Occasionally cielings may drop into the MVFR category but its hould be short lived. Currently cielings are between 3000 and 5000ft and are not expected to drop below that. KDVL overcast conditions are expected to lift by this evening. A few models has some patchy fog developing in the morning but its uncertain if the airports will become saturated enough to produce fog. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MM AVIATION...MM