654
FXUS63 KFGF 142033
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
333 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms west
  of the Red River Valley overnight tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...Synopsis...

Satellite shows some mid-level and higher level clouds working their
way ESE from Saskatchewan this afternoon. Some fields of cumulus are
trying to bubble up as the ground warms, resulting in a few pockets
around the area. Later this evening, a surface low pressure system
will traverse the area, providing the forcing for our expected
severe risk. The actual upper low (further back in AB and SK) is
expected later on Monday, but instability and other necessary
parameters during that period look to be lower, so not thinking
severe weather with the UL. Once we get to mid-week, the pattern is
expected to shift to ridging to our SW and calmer weather for the
work week.

...Severe Risk & Beyond...

For the severe risk, guidance has pivoted to show more of an
overnight event, with some discrete cells ahead of the actual line
of storms. Hazards such as large hail and damaging winds are still
expected, but given the predominantly cluster nature, hail size is
likely closer to ping pong ball sized (1.5") rather than golf ball
sized (1.75"). This is not to say golf balls are not possible in
discrete cells that can maintain nuclei in the ice growth zone.
MUCAPE remains sufficient for convection, around 1000-2000 J/kg, and
shear is more than enough to support strong storms around 50 knots.
Damaging winds are a concern with DCAPE over 1000 J/kg in the
southern valley, and with dry air aloft, would not be surprised to
see some 70 MPH gusts. Some heavy rain is possible as well, with 40 -
 60% chance of greater than or equal to 0.5" in 24 hours, mainly HWY-
200 and north on the ND side.

After this trough, the rest of the week features quiet weather, and
cooler temperatures, warming into the mid 80s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Main concerns this TAF period are TSRA, and wind shifts. TSRA
will be likely in the 0z - 12z period, and more likely in the
southern TAF sites. Winds will go light and variable this
evening, turning to the south at first then northerly with a
cold front Monday afternoon. Winds will stay below 15 knots
throughout the entire period. Clouds will build with the
precipitation, but should stay in VFR or MVFR categories.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AH
AVIATION...AH