Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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316 FXUS63 KFGF 151223 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 723 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe Threat ends in far SE ND/WC MN by 12z Mon. - This week drier and more stable with temps near or below normal. && .UPDATE... Issued at 719 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The shower and t-storm area has cleared east of the area. A cold front associated with the 500 mb short wave near Winnipeg is moving thru the northern RRV with a weakening line of t-storms. There has been a consistent gust front with winds 33-38 mph from Langdon thru Cavalier to Hallock areas. This will continue to move east and exit Lake of the Woods by 16z. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...Synopsis... Well defined 500 mb short wave moving into the RRV at 0830z with an area of showers and t-storms. Highest instability and DCAPE gradient has remained over our southwest fcst area. Thru 11z storms, some locally severe, will occur in far SE ND and into far west central MN near the ND/SD/MN border area. This is where the focus of elevated instability is located. Northern part of the rain area has been weakening gradually and for locations north of Fargo impacts are minimal. 500 mb short wave associated more with the cold front is in SW Manitoba with a cluster of storms with it. This wave will pass thru and east of the area by 18z Mon and look for northwest winds 10-20 kts spreading eastward behind these systems midday and afternoon. Next short wave upstream will drop more south thru Manitoba into eastern ND Tuesday behind the departing short wave and in advance of a 500 mb low that will be dropping south-southeast from N Manitoba into NW Ontario. Will have some 20-30 pops for a few showers or isold thunder with this wave on Tuesday. High pressure will then move overhead Wed-Thu. 500 mb heights will rise into western Canada mid week with warmer air spreading north and a sharp ridge west and trough east will be located over Canada and the northern tier of the US with our forecast area in between and on the backside of the 500 mb trough to our east Fri-Sun period. Warmer air will move in but warmest airmass remains to our west. Generally dry weather but some weak shortwaves dropping south may bring low chances for a shower or t-storm Friday late and again by Monday. No impacts weather wise anticipated once we have this current system move out. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 719 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Main storm area has moved well east. What we have left is a partly cloudy sky for most with scattered mid clouds. There is a cold front with a more consistent NW wind behind it from Cavalier to DVL and southwest into central ND moving east and with this there is a band of MVFR cigs. How much that continues east with the front is uncertain, as it may scatter out with the help of the sun. NW wind 10-20 kts this aftn. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Riddle