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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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274 FXUS63 KFGF 151748 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1248 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - This week drier and more stable with temps near or below normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...Synopsis... Well defined 500 mb short wave moving into the RRV at 0830z with an area of showers and t-storms. Highest instability and DCAPE gradient has remained over our southwest fcst area. Thru 11z storms, some locally severe, will occur in far SE ND and into far west central MN near the ND/SD/MN border area. This is where the focus of elevated instability is located. Northern part of the rain area has been weakening gradually and for locations north of Fargo impacts are minimal. 500 mb short wave associated more with the cold front is in SW Manitoba with a cluster of storms with it. This wave will pass thru and east of the area by 18z Mon and look for northwest winds 10-20 kts spreading eastward behind these systems midday and afternoon. Next short wave upstream will drop more south thru Manitoba into eastern ND Tuesday behind the departing short wave and in advance of a 500 mb low that will be dropping south-southeast from N Manitoba into NW Ontario. Will have some 20-30 pops for a few showers or isold thunder with this wave on Tuesday. High pressure will then move overhead Wed-Thu. 500 mb heights will rise into western Canada mid week with warmer air spreading north and a sharp ridge west and trough east will be located over Canada and the northern tier of the US with our forecast area in between and on the backside of the 500 mb trough to our east Fri-Sun period. Warmer air will move in but warmest airmass remains to our west. Generally dry weather but some weak shortwaves dropping south may bring low chances for a shower or t-storm Friday late and again by Monday. No impacts weather wise anticipated once we have this current system move out. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 MVFR to VFR CU field with across the area, expect it to lift quickly to all VFR this afternoon and dissipate into the evening. Could have some high clouds move in with northerly flow aloft into Tuesday. Otherwise some gustier northerly winds today, diminishing overnight. VFR conditions into Tuesday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RIDDLE AVIATION...MJB