975
FXUS63 KFGF 160851
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
351 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No signifcant weather impacts anticipated the next 7 days.

- Isolated to scattered shower/t-storm today, and again Friday
  to Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...Synopsis...

500 mb short wave producing a few t-storms into eastern Montana
and southwest ND at 08z. Light rain showers (more sprinkles than
anything) extending east in the mid clouds associated with this
wave into central and parts of eastern ND. Few light
showers/trace of precipitation will brush the SW fcst area thru
12z as it moves into SD.

Upstream is a 500 mb short wave rotating south around a larger
upper low moving into far NW Ontario. This short wave has been
well advertised and will drop south thru the Red River valley
this aftn. A few showers with this feature approaching Winnipeg
at 08z. All short term models indicate an isolated to scattered
coverage of showers and a few t-storms today spreading south in
the valley and NW MN. Pops were left pretty much as they were in
past forecasts....mostly 15-25 pops. A few areas may need to be
upped once where the better chances of precip are determined.

A couple hundred CAPE in the aftn with highs in the 70s. Enough
instability and 0-6 km bulk shear of 35 kts for some thunder
but no severe storms anticipated.

This wave and associated isold-scat precipitation ends early
this evening in MN.   Skies clear out overnight.

High pressure in control Wed-Thu, over the area Wed and moves
east Thu with winds turning from light north to light southerly.

Friday and into the weekend 500 mb pattern shows a sharp ridge
and warmth into Alberta and NW Canada, with a trough in eastern
Canada and the northeast US/Great Lakes. Fcst area will be in
the north flow on backside of upper trough to the east and on
the front side of the ridge to the west. Indications are a few
rather weak short waves will drop south in north flow thru the
area and just enough instability of 1000-1500 j/kg in the aftns
for a low pop for t-storms Fri-Sun afternoons. No severe weather
anticipated as dew pts and return flow of instability from the
south will be limited.





&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Did not mention showers at any of the TAF sites overnight due to
low confidence in their occurrence. Pretty much the same story
for Tuesday afternoon. There could be a few showers or weak
storms around, but very low confidence that they would hit a TAF
site. Do expect at least SCT cumulus again late Tuesday morning
through the afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Godon