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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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413 FXUS63 KFGF 161736 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - No significant weather impacts anticipated the next 7 days. - Isolated to scattered shower/t-storm today, and again Friday to Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 We continue to be on the back edge of the upper level low over the Hudson bringing us cumulus development this afternoon. This will continue through the afternoon before coverage diminishes post sunset. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and early evening as a shortwave moves through the region. UPDATE Issued at 1003 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Isolated to scattered showers continue to push into northern Minnesota and North Dakota from Canada this morning. This is on the backside of an upper level low situated over the Hudson. Chances for showers continue through the afternoon hours. Instability is on the weaker end (500-1000 J/kg), but isolated lightning and thunder can`t be ruled. No Severe Weather is expected today. UPDATE Issued at 610 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 500 mb short wave moving southeast thru western ND and ahead of it showers and a few t-storms eastern Montana into far northwest and north central SD. A few light showers/sprinkles trying to make it into Valley City/Lisbon, but that is as far as they will get as area slips into South Dakota this morning. Upstream 500 mb short and area of showers Winnipeg area and east into NW Ontario moving south-southeast and will be thru parts of NW MN (mainly Hallock-Bemidji and east) this morning and likely a bit more coverage this aftn due to daytime heating. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...Synopsis... 500 mb short wave producing a few t-storms into eastern Montana and southwest ND at 08z. Light rain showers (more sprinkles than anything) extending east in the mid clouds associated with this wave into central and parts of eastern ND. Few light showers/trace of precipitation will brush the SW fcst area thru 12z as it moves into SD. Upstream is a 500 mb short wave rotating south around a larger upper low moving into far NW Ontario. This short wave has been well advertised and will drop south thru the Red River valley this aftn. A few showers with this feature approaching Winnipeg at 08z. All short term models indicate an isolated to scattered coverage of showers and a few t-storms today spreading south in the valley and NW MN. Pops were left pretty much as they were in past forecasts....mostly 15-25 pops. A few areas may need to be upped once where the better chances of precip are determined. A couple hundred CAPE in the aftn with highs in the 70s. Enough instability and 0-6 km bulk shear of 35 kts for some thunder but no severe storms anticipated. This wave and associated isold-scat precipitation ends early this evening in MN. Skies clear out overnight. High pressure in control Wed-Thu, over the area Wed and moves east Thu with winds turning from light north to light southerly. Friday and into the weekend 500 mb pattern shows a sharp ridge and warmth into Alberta and NW Canada, with a trough in eastern Canada and the northeast US/Great Lakes. Fcst area will be in the north flow on backside of upper trough to the east and on the front side of the ridge to the west. Indications are a few rather weak short waves will drop south in north flow thru the area and just enough instability of 1000-1500 j/kg in the afternoons, low pop for t-storms Fri-Sun afternoons. No severe weather anticipated as dew pts and return flow of instability from the south will be limited. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions continue across the sites this afternoon, with TVF, BJI, and GFK getting near MVFR due to cumulus development. We expect cloud coverage to continue to increase through the afternoon, with MVFR ceilings possible. A few showers are possible in GFK, BJI, and TVF during the afternoon. Winds remain out of the north gusting near 20kts at times for GFK, DVL, and TVF. Overnight around 09-12z winds go VRB, with skies clearing overnight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle/Spender DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Spender