694
FXUS62 KFFC 131011
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
611 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The stretched and poorly-defined tropical low off the Southeast
coast continues to pool Atlantic moisture into the Carolinas and
eastern Georgia today. Gradual warming of both temperatures and dew
points are expected through the short term as this tropical moisture
sits under the periphery of the Bermuda High. Very isolated
thunderstorms are possible in east central Georgia, but have forced
PoPs below 15 percent given the meager chances. Better chances
expected Sunday as Slight Chance PoPs extend west and north,
including central and portions of north Georgia.

This morning, hourly temperature and dewpoint trends have sided a
few degrees cooler than latest guidance, so have nosed down these
grids through early afternoon today. As a result, Heat Index values
will top out around 100 in the hottest areas. Forecast conditions
are still being monitored for Sunday, but at this time, triple digit
Heat Index values look to stay sub-Heat Advisory criteria. Monday
looks to have the highest chance for Heat headlines, though too
early to make the call just yet (see Long Term discussion).

31

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

At a glance:

-Toasty

-A more unsettled pattern will return beginning Wednesday.

The long term picks up on Monday with temps in the triple digits
across most of Georgia. There could be a few areas where Heat
indices could exceed 105 in parts of eastern Georgia; we`ll continue
monitoring through the weekend with regards of issuing heat related
products. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s going
into Tuesday.

Tuesday will mark the beginning of a transition period for most of
the area. Temps are expected to remain in the upper 90s but a trough
in weak zonal flow will enter the south east and get a bit hung up
over the gulf coast. Showers in thunderstorms will be possible for
the southern portion of the CWA on Tuesday afternoon, and remain the
lifting mechanism for afternoon storms for the rest of the forecast
period.

Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy
period. Depending on where the strongest exist of activity unfolds
over the next week, we may need to be on the lookout for isolated
areas of urban flooding. Widespread severe weather is not expected,
but a few afternoon storms could be strong with gusty winds and
frequent lightning.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. FEW-BKN 5KFT CU to
develop by late morning and lift to 7-8KFT. Light and variable
winds (less than 6KT) expected to favor NE 12-17Z, then shift to
favor more W after 17Z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Moderate confidence on wind direction.
High confidence on all other elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  99  74 100 /  10  20   0  20
Atlanta         76  98  76  98 /   0  20  10  30
Blairsville     68  91  68  93 /  10  20  10  30
Cartersville    72  98  73  99 /   0  10   0  30
Columbus        76 101  77 100 /  10  20  10  50
Gainesville     73  97  74  98 /  10  20   0  20
Macon           75 100  75 100 /  10  20   0  40
Rome            71  99  73  99 /   0  10   0  30
Peachtree City  73  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
Vidalia         76  98  78  98 /  10  30  10  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...31