389
FXUS62 KFFC 091549
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1149 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Forecast appears to be on track. Thick low clouds from early this
morning have thinned and lifted to a respectable cumulus field in
most locations. Showers have begun to develop across AL and near the
AL/GA line N of Columbus. Deep SW flow has increased in response to
the closer proximity of remnant of Beryl (now a frontal low over
AR). As a result, shower and storms are progressing to the NE at
about 15 to 20 mph. This should reduce the threat of flooding a bit,
although precipitable water values are still almost 2", and any
training storms will be capable of producing localized flooding. Wind
speed increases through the column have been fairly uniform, which
has kept bulk shear increases low. As a result, most storms are
expected to remain below severe limits. The Heat Advisory is on track
as well. /SEC

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Key Messages:

  - Heat Advisory is in effect for central and eastern GA from 11 am
    to 8 pm. Heat indices above 105 will be possible.

  - Diurnally driven convection will again be possible during the
    afternoon and evening, continuing into the early overnight.

  - Drier, cooler air will move into the area through Wednesday as
    the remnants of Beryl passes to the north.

Forecast:

Rain and thunderstorms overnight have ended. Several inches of rain
fell in portions of north Georgia with at least one rain gauge
seeing approximately 5" in 3 hours, prompting some flash flood
warnings. Otherwise, patchy low clouds and some very patchy haze and
fog will be in place until shortly after sunrise.

The expectation for today is much of the same as previous days. The
air you can wear remains in place, with afternoon temperatures
rising into the 90s and dewpoints remaining in the 70s. In central
and eastern GA a heat advisory has been issued, as here heat indices
should exceed 105, WBGT values will be 88-90, and it frankly has
just been uncomfortably hot for the better part of the past week or
more. If working or exercising outdoors, please use caution, take
frequent breaks, and drink plenty of fluids. And please don`t
forget about our furry friends, who need water and breaks as well!

Diurnal convection is expected once again during the afternoon and
evening hours. Tropical airmass remains in place, and as the
remnants of Beryl pass to the north, moisture will continue to pump
into the area. CAPE profiles are tall but skinny given poor upper
level lapse rates and shear remains well under 20 kts. Severe
weather is not anticipated, but some strong wind gusts could occur.
Heavy, flooding rain from slow moving or training storms will be the
main concern, as previous days have shown these storms in this
environment can be extremely efficient rainfall producers. Isolated
flash flooding will again be possible.

Tomorrow, the extratropical Beryl will drive a "cold" front into the
area. Drier air will filter in from the west and temperatures in
western GA will be a bit more seasonable. Afternoon storms will
remain possible, with best chances in eastern GA as the front
progresses through.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The start of the long term forecast period will be characterized by
considerably drier conditions that will infiltrate the area in the
wake of a "cold" front pushed southeastward in the wake of Beryl.
Amid this considerably drier airmass, convective coverage will be
rather limited Thursday and Friday and likely persisting into
Saturday. Isolated PoPs will thus be relegated to far southeast
zones Thursday with isolated to low chance chance PoPs only creeping
slightly back westward from Friday into Saturday. By Sunday into
early next week, PoPs then may begin to revert back toward
climatological diurnal chances as moisture begins to return back
west and northward, though the degree to which this occurs remains
to be seen.

While the return to drier conditions may not be entirely welcome,
the more tolerable afternoon heat index values will likely be more
appreciated. In fact, 100+ degree heat index values appear likely to
be erased from the CWA both Thursday and Friday afternoons despite
high temperatures still ranging well into the 90s. Additionally,
morning lows in the 60s across much of north Georgia both Thursday
and Friday morning will bring a more refreshing feel to things.
Enjoy this brief relief, because temperatures and dewpoints will
both be on a gradual upswing by the end of the period.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 AM EDT Tue Jul 9 2024

MVFR cigs are beginning to impact some metro TAF sites (including
ATL) as well as CSG/MCN. These should burn off quickly after
sunrise. Another day of scattered afternoon TSRA expected during
late afternoon and early evening, best timing around 20Z-24Z.
Winds will be west to southwest through period, 5-10 kts. A cold
front will approach metro sites tomorrow morning, providing some
opportunity for low cigs. -SHRA or DZ could be present, but not
confident enough in coverage for TAF inclusion at this time.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  92  70  94 /  20  30  10  10
Atlanta         74  90  71  92 /  20  20  10  10
Blairsville     69  85  63  87 /  40  40  10  10
Cartersville    72  90  67  92 /  20  30  10  10
Columbus        76  94  72  96 /  20  30   0  10
Gainesville     74  89  70  92 /  30  30  10  10
Macon           75  95  72  95 /  10  30   0  10
Rome            73  90  67  93 /  30  30  10   0
Peachtree City  73  92  69  93 /  20  20  10  10
Vidalia         75  93  75  94 /  30  60  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ024-025-027-
035>039-046>051-056>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Lusk