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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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305 FXUS62 KFFC 141745 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 145 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New 18Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 No major weather impacts or forecast concerns expected in the short term period. Pattern fairly static during the period with upper ridge centered near CO/NM and another elongated ridge extending from the northern Gulf into the central north Atlantic. In between the two features is a weakness in height field with moisture slowly streaming from the western Gulf back east into the southern states. With the increasing moisture, coverage of diurnal convection expected to increase. Coverage of SHRA/TSRA should remain < 20% today but increase to 30-40% Monday and even higher the rest of the week. Unfortunately, temps will remain well above normal with max temps 96-100F over the entire CWA today and Monday. Dewpoints mainly low to mid 60s this afternoon with some mixing of drier air aloft but a bit higher Monday. Could approach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria on Monday, esp over middle Georgia. SNELSON && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 331 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 At a glance: -A few more days of hot weather. -Showers and thunderstorms will return on Wednesday and continue through the week. Heat indices could exceed 105 in parts of eastern Georgia on Tuesday afternoon across eastern Georgia. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 70s keeping things feeling toasty. A trough in what is otherwise weak zonal flow will enter the south east and stall out over the gulf coast. Showers in thunderstorms will be possible for the southern portion of the CWA on Tuesday afternoon, and remain the lifting mechanism for afternoon storms for the rest of the forecast period; slowly expanding it`s effects to the rest of the CWA. Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy period. Precipitable waters will range from the 2 to 2.5 inch range Wed through Fri so depending on where the strongest bands set up, we could see some significant rain totals. 7 day QPF totals are in the 1 to 2 inch range and would not be surprised to see some isolated higher totals especially across central GA. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few afternoon storms could be strong with gusty winds, periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning. Vaughn && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period. A cu field around 060-080 has developed over the last couple of hours and will persist through the afternoon. Isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible in the mid to late afternoon, warranting VCSH from 20Z to 01Z. Winds will be primarily W to NW at 4-8 kts. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium confidence on the coverage of SHRA/TSRA this afternoon. High confidence on all the other elements. King && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 99 74 97 / 10 30 30 50 Atlanta 77 97 75 95 / 20 40 40 60 Blairsville 69 91 69 90 / 20 50 30 60 Cartersville 74 98 73 96 / 10 40 30 60 Columbus 77 99 76 97 / 20 50 40 60 Gainesville 74 97 75 95 / 20 30 30 50 Macon 75 99 75 97 / 20 40 30 50 Rome 73 98 73 96 / 10 40 30 60 Peachtree City 74 97 73 95 / 20 40 30 60 Vidalia 77 99 76 97 / 20 50 40 60 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SNELSON LONG TERM....Vaughn AVIATION...King