Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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305 FXUS62 KFFC 050606 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 206 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Key Messages: - Isolated thunderstorms will remain a concern for Independence Day celebrations this evening. - A Heat Advisory has been issued for Friday due to expected heat index values over 105 degrees. - A frontal boundary should lead to more widespread thunderstorms in northern and central Georgia Friday afternoon and evening. This Evening and Tonight: Satellite imagery indicated a broad cumulus field over northern and central Georgia with the most vigorous cumulus over the western half of the state. Isolated showers and thunderstorms were ongoing within the cumulus field (mainly along and west of Interstate 75). Narrow CAPE profiles and mid level lapse rates below 5.5 C/km should significantly limit the potential for stronger convection this evening. Thus severe weather is not anticipated. Frequent lighting and occasional wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range could still be hazardous for anyone celebrating the Independence day the holiday outdoors. Heat will remain a concern through this evening and a Heat Advisory remains in place through 7 PM this evening. Where thunderstorms and rain showers don`t occur, heat index values should remain at or above 100 degrees through around 7 PM. Conditions should improve after 7 PM, but conditions will remain warm and humid and impacts from the heat could linger, especially for anyone who has spent the entire day out in the heat. Concerns for Friday: A weak cold front will push into the region on Friday. Ahead of the front hot and humid conditions will be in place across Georgia. Temperatures in the mid and upper 90s should combine with dewpoints in the mid 70s to produce afternoon heat indices in the 100 to 108 degree range. A Heat Advisory has been issued for a large part of northern and central Georgia for Friday afternoon. Confidence in advisory criteria (heat index of 105 or higher) being met is highest in east central Georgia. The Heat Advisory for northwest Georgia is lower confidence due to the potential for clouds and storms that may disrupt the afternoon heating. The aforementioned front will serve as a focal point for thunderstorm development Friday afternoon/evening. Any storms that from along the front may be efficient rain producers due to unusually high PW values (at or above 2 inches and above the 90th percentile for early July). Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour will be possible with the most vigorous storms. Dry ambient conditions and the limited scope of the more vigorous convection should keep any flooding threat localized. Severe weather is not anticipated due to modest mid level lapse rates (5.5 C/km or less) and a lack of effective shear (15 kt or less). Albright && .LONG TERM... (Saturday morning through next Wednesday) Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Over the Weekend: The aforementioned cold front should stall over the region this weekend. This will allow thunderstorms chances to linger in the region. The rainfall potential will be highest during the afternoon and evening hours when diurnal heating will be maximized. There may however be sufficient low level support for some isolated rainfall during the overnight and early morning hours each day. As with Friday, a lack of appreciable shear and poor mid level lapse rates should limit the potential for stronger storms. Heat will remain a potential concern over the weekend for locations south of the frontal boundary and free of widespread cloud cover. This largely means that we are monitoring portions of east central Georgia for potential Heat Advisory conditions. Though our forecast heat indices have declined by 1 to 3 degrees with the latest forecast update, there remains a chance that Heat Advisories will be need on Saturday (60% chance) or Sunday (20% chance) in east central Georgia. Next Week: The large scale weather patter next week should feature troughing over the north central U.S. and upper level ridge over the Western Atlantic. This pattern should favor weak subsidence aloft and keep surface moisture (surface dewpoints between 68 and 75 degree) in place across the Georgia, resulting in continued 20-50 percent chances for thunderstorms each afternoon. In short it is summer and we will be in a very summer like pattern. Temperatures will cool some early in the week when a few places may see afternoon highs fail to reach 90 degrees. Then a warming trend is favored by the GEFS and EPS as the week progresses, with afternoon highs returning to the low and mid 90s by Wednesday. Albright && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 200 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR to start TAF period. Monitoring vsby at most sites with FU/HZ issues in some locations thanks to tonight`s festivities. Thinking these issues should clear up in next few hours, though thanks to rain in metro ATL, possible that effects may linger or additional HZ or FG could continue to develop. Some MVFR cig development possible in metro sites this morning as well, though low confidence, highlighted by FEW/SCT mention in 11Z line. TSRA possible Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches. Low cigs possible Saturday morning as moisture continues to return to area ahead of front. Winds will be west side through period, moving SW to WNW as front approaches, 4-8 kts. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence cigs/vsby each morning. High all others. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 74 94 73 89 / 50 70 40 70 Atlanta 75 92 74 92 / 60 60 20 60 Blairsville 69 87 66 87 / 60 60 20 50 Cartersville 73 91 69 95 / 60 50 10 50 Columbus 76 95 76 94 / 50 80 30 70 Gainesville 75 92 73 90 / 50 60 30 60 Macon 75 94 73 92 / 40 80 40 80 Rome 74 93 70 95 / 60 40 10 40 Peachtree City 73 93 71 93 / 60 70 30 60 Vidalia 76 95 75 92 / 30 60 50 80 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ001>005-011>013-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076- 078>086-089>098-102>113. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....Albright AVIATION...Lusk