659
FXUS62 KFFC 171747
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
147 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A more normal summertime pattern with much needed flash drought
relief on the way. The region lies in a break between the strong
mid level ridge over the western US and the Atlantic/Bermuda ridge
out over the Atlantic with southerly flow around the Atlantic
ridge. As a result, deep moisture is fairly well established
across the area with PWAT values above 1.5" and ranging as high as
2" in model forecasts through Thursday. With little capping or
inhibition, expect gradual increases in diurnal coverage Wednesday
and Thursday leading into the extended. Not seeing much in the
parameter space to indicate a widespread severe threat each day,
but certainly can`t rule out an isolated severe tstorm. CAPE
values ranging 1000 up to 3000 j/kg expected however, mid level
lapse rates remain fairly low aoa 5 deg C/km thus heavy rainfall
or higher rainfall rates looks to be the primary risk given the
higher pwat values, followed by lightning and strong to damaging
wind gusts. Wednesday max T`s appears to be the last above normal
day before more normal to even below normal temps take hold as
more storms and cloud cover become prominent in the extended.

30

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

At a glance:

-No big changes to the previous forecast

-Showers and thunderstorms will be likely every afternoon.

Drought conditions may get some relief as we head into this rainy
period. Precipitable waters will range from the 2 to 2.5 inch range
Wed through Fri so depending on where the strongest bands set up, we
could see some significant rain totals. 7 day QPF totals are in the
2 inch range with locally higher amounts expected for isolated
areas. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few
afternoon storms could warrant a SVR warning with winds being the
primary concern. Given MU CAPE values in the vicinity of 2000+ J/KG
most of our afternoon convection will likely have strong winds,
periods of heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

As far as temps go, we`ll be on the cool side of the climatological
norms with highs around 3 degrees below normal. Highs beginning
Friday will be in the mid 80s to low 90s from north to south; areas
of higher elevations may struggle to get out of the 70s. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. It`s worth noting that
high temps may be significantly different from the forecast in areas
where rain keeps temps from peaking during the afternoon.

Vaughn

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Thunderstorms are beginning to pop over the area with a cu field
~4kft. Expecting these scattered storms to prevail through ~23z.
Looking at tomorrow morning, there is a low end chance for showers
to and MVFR CIGS between 08 and 11z. After that, into the
afternoon tomorrow expecting another round of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms to affect the area. Winds will shift to the NW
tomorrow afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Low to medium on lack of showers and MVFR tomorrow morning.
Medium on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  93  70  86 /  40  60  50  80
Atlanta         72  90  71  86 /  50  80  50  80
Blairsville     66  83  64  81 /  70  70  40  80
Cartersville    70  89  67  87 /  60  70  40  70
Columbus        74  94  72  89 /  30  80  60  90
Gainesville     72  90  70  85 /  50  70  40  80
Macon           72  94  71  89 /  30  70  60  90
Rome            71  88  68  88 /  60  80  30  60
Peachtree City  71  91  69  87 /  40  80  50  80
Vidalia         75  95  74  93 /  30  60  50  90

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....Vaughn
AVIATION...Hernandez