Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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643 FXUS62 KFFC 021157 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 757 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New 12Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 At a glance: - Milder temperatures today with apparent temperatures 10 to 15 degrees lower than Monday`s. - Lower rain chances today with mostly dry weather from the Atlanta metro area northward. Upper high pressure over the lower MS Valley today will expand into an E/W ridge from W TX to Central GA by Wednesday. At the surface, the weak cold front that moved S across the area on Monday will become stationary near the FL/GA line today and become diffuse. High pressure over the mid-Atlantic states has nosed into the area in a short-lived wedge setup. This will bring milder high temperatures today (mostly in the upper 80s with upper 70s in the NE mountains). Dew points will remain in the mid 70s across the S, but values will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s across the NE portion of the area. Additionally, easterly winds will gust to near 20 mph during the morning hours. This will lead to more comfortable conditions today. Winds will begin to diminish during the afternoon hours. PoPs today will be less than 10 percent across the N half of the County Warning Area (CWA), with chance PoPs across the S. Higher PoPs are expected on Wednesday, ranging from around 15 percent across the N to 60 percent across the extreme S near the dissipating frontal boundary. MUCAPE values will be increasing on Wednesday, with 1000 to 1500 J/kg across much of the area. CAPE region will be tall but fairly thin with very low effective shear. As a result, storms should remain below severe limits. /SEC && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 The frontal boundary that is currently just south of our area on the GA/FL border is expected to stay stationary which will in turn keep rain chances more limited to central Georgia just north of the boundary through Wednesday evening. PWATs are currently forecast to be between 1.5-2" for Wednesday which could result in efficient rain producers with any showers or storms that form. Considering the amount of rainfall central Georgia has received, that area will need to be watched closely for any flooding concerns over the next couple of days. Looking at a break down of the 500 mb ridging over our area as the high pressure shifts eastward and a trough begins to deepen into the mid MS valley into Friday. As this trough moves further eastward and the associated surface low moves into the Ohio valley, a cold front looks to move into the Tennessee Valley by Saturday increasing rain chances over north Georgia Friday into Saturday. The front then looks to sag southward over the area into Sunday evening which is reflected in the increased rain chances through the weekend. Models are indicating PWATs at 2"+ over the area into the weekend, so again any storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers and we`ll have to keep an eye on the flooding potential although this is still at day 7. Outside of the two main boundaries moving through, daily scattered rain chances can be expected mainly due to diurnal heating over the area. Temps are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s through the weekend and with the moist airmass (dewpoints in the mid 70s), heat indices will need to be monitored for potential heat advisories for the July 4th weekend. Hernandez && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 754 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon at MCN and CSG. For this update, have opted to change the PROB30 at both these locations to VCTS, with better chances to the S. Winds will be easterly through the period. Gusts to around 20 knots are expected through the morning, with wind speeds decreasing this afternoon. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Medium for timing of lifting and thinning cigs, high for other elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 69 91 72 95 / 10 20 10 20 Atlanta 73 91 75 94 / 10 30 10 30 Blairsville 65 86 67 89 / 10 20 10 40 Cartersville 72 93 73 95 / 10 30 10 40 Columbus 75 92 75 95 / 20 50 10 40 Gainesville 70 90 73 93 / 10 20 10 30 Macon 73 91 72 94 / 30 50 10 30 Rome 72 93 74 95 / 0 20 10 40 Peachtree City 72 91 72 94 / 10 30 10 30 Vidalia 74 91 73 94 / 30 70 10 40 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEC LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...SEC