117
FXUS64 KEWX 041708
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The subtropical ridge is centered over MS this morning and extends
to the west over TX. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf
has the low level flow from the south to southeast across our CWA.
The warm, moist airmass over the region is about the same as 24
hours ago. The pattern will not change significantly today. The
upper ridge will continue to dominate keeping the forecast rain
free. The low level flow will remain from the southeast keeping
warm, moist air in place. This afternoon temperatures will be a
degree or two higher than they were yesterday. High temperatures
will be in the upper 90s to 103. Dewpoint temperatures will mix out
into the lower 60s to lower 70s. This will result in heat indices
above 105 for the I-35 Corridor, Coastal Plains, and Rio Grande
region. Some places will briefly reach Heat Advisory criteria, but
the areal coverage should be limited along with a short duration. We
will cover the situation with a Special Weather Statement for this
borderline case. Highs Friday will be about the same as today, but
dewpoints will be a little lower keeping heat indices below advisory
criteria. Don`t be fooled, it will still be hot with heat indices of
105 to 107 everywhere except the Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The beginning of the long-term portion of the forecast will see low
PoPs mainly in the northern two-thirds of the area as a weak
boundary moves into the southern counties. This boundary will serve
as a focus for some scattered shower and thunderstorm development.
Upper flow will be quite week and with precipitable water values
approaching 2 inches, can`t rule out some pockets of locally heavy
rain. With the slow movement expected, these heavier pockets will be
very isolated. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the middle
to upper 90s for most of the area with some values near 100 degrees
in the southwestern CWA.

The focus of the forecast for Sunday into early next week turns to
the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and what Hurricane Beryl ends up
doing track and strength wise. The latest forecast track from the
National Hurricane Center has the cone of uncertainty now covering
much of our CWA at the end of the official forecast Monday evening.
The latest track forecast has Beryl moving West/Northwest into the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Friday morning then reemerging over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday evening. Latest computer models
have better agreement showing a continued W/NW movement towards the
northern Mexico Coast, but some uncertainty remains as it nears the
coastline Sunday afternoon. Some solutions keep it moving more west
into the mountainous terrain of Mexico, while some shift the
movement more northerly up into our area towards a weakness in the
upper ridge. This solution would bring some beneficial rainfall to
the region, but it is still too early to have much confidence in
this solution. We will continue to fine tune local details and
impacts based on each track forecast from the National Hurricane
Center.

We hope to have more confidence on the track/strength/impacts later
this week. One thing we are sure of is to stress to anyone traveling
to the beach for the the 4th of July, that increased swells and the
risk for rip currents increase by the end of the week into the
weekend. For the official forecast through Tuesday, will stick close
to the NBM for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

The latest forecast on the aviation side of things calls for VFR CIGs
through the entire operational period. We may see some MVFR CIGs try
to sneak in at SAT and SSF towards sunrise Friday, but otherwise,
quite weather is expected. Winds should mainly be out of the
southeast, but may turn SSW briefly at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              78 100  78  97 /   0  10  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76 100  76  97 /   0  10  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76 101  76  98 /   0  10  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            76  97  75  93 /   0  20  30  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 104  80 104 /   0  10  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  99  76  94 /   0  10  30  30
Hondo Muni Airport             74 101  75  99 /   0  10  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        74 100  75  98 /   0  10  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  97  76  94 /   0  10  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       77 100  78  99 /   0  10  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           76 101  77 100 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...29
Aviation...MMM