166
FXUS64 KEPZ 140610
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1210 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Mainly dry conditions persist through Monday as the threat of
showers and storms begins to spread eastward. Around the middle
of the week, all areas will see scattered afternoon showers and
storms with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Temperatures stay near or just above average with a modest
cooldown later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Quiet weather is ongoing this afternoon with just a few CU over
the mountains and southern corners of the CWA. The upper high has
shifted north of the region near the Four Corners where it will
sit over the next couple days. This feature will dominate our
weather, keeping us under dry, northeasterly flow from the Central
Plains into early next week. Not much convection is expected to
develop through Sunday due to the stable airmass. For tomorrow
afternoon, there is just enough of a moisture tap from the south
to fuel isolated to scattered storms west of the Divide. Storm
motion remains easterly, so the activity will somewhat quickly
eject into AZ.

For Monday, the upper high flattens due to a passing trough in the
northern Rockies, resulting in more easterly flow aloft and
allowing PWs to climb to near normal for mid-July (0.9-1"). Storm
chances increase slightly everywhere on Monday, but it should be a
similar setup to Sunday with the focus out west. The high then
begins to shift west and strengthen into midweek as a potent upper
low swings through eastern Canada. Storm motion shifts more
northerly around the high on Tuesday, spreading better rain
chances across the CWA. Wind gusts to 50 mph are possible for
Tuesday due to steeper lapse rates and diffluent flow aloft with
an inverted trough to our southeast.

The upper high remains centralized over the Great Basin region
for the second half of the week, allowing backdoor fronts and
perturbations to dive down the eastern periphery. From Wednesday
onward, storm motion will be mostly northeasterly and slow
(<15kts) as the surface winds remain east- southeasterly. PWs hold
around 1.25" beginning around Thursday, reaching as high as 1.5".
Each afternoon into next weekend, scattered lowland activity and
widespread mountain storms can be expected, lingering into the
overnight hours. Locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and flash
flooding are the main concerns.

Temperatures will be warm into midweek with somewhat drier air in
place, then cooling off to a bit below normal for the second half
of the week. Sunday-Tuesday look to be the warmest days of the
period for El Paso, reaching into the low 100s for highs. If we
stay clear of clouds and the high drifts more south, we may flirt
with Heat Advisory criteria in El Paso (75th percentile NBM is
105 on Tuesday).

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF
sites for the period. Winds will remain light out of the SE for most
locations and then shift more eastelry and pick up slightly tomorrow
afternoon. Wind gusts should stay at 20kts or lower for all
locations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 105 PM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Low fire weather concerns are expected through the period.
Relatively dry conditions remain in place this weekend as an upper
high sits to the north. However, light east-southeast winds are
forecast for Sunday, so new fire starts will be slow to spread.
Moisture increases through the column by midweek, resulting in
better rain chances and potential for flash flooding. Other than
outflow boundaries, winds will be light to modestly breezy mostly
from the east. Fuels will moisten further as we get better rains
next week. Temperatures remain near or just above normal for the
first half of the week with a slight cool down thereafter due to
cloud cover and rain chances.

Min RHs range from 12-25% through Monday, rising to 25-45% by
Thursday. Vent rates will be good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 102  76 101 /  10  10  10  10
Sierra Blanca            66  94  65  92 /  10  10  10  30
Las Cruces               71 101  71 100 /  10  10  20  20
Alamogordo               67  98  68  97 /   0  10  10  20
Cloudcroft               51  76  52  75 /   0  20  10  40
Truth or Consequences    70  99  71  97 /  10  20  20  40
Silver City              65  94  64  92 /  30  50  40  70
Deming                   69 101  70 100 /  20  20  30  20
Lordsburg                70 101  69 100 /  40  50  40  50
West El Paso Metro       74 100  75  99 /  10  10  20  20
Dell City                69  98  68  99 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock             70 100  70 100 /  10  10  10  20
Loma Linda               66  93  67  92 /   0  10  10  20
Fabens                   72 100  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             72  98  71  98 /  10  10  20  20
White Sands HQ           74  99  73  98 /  10  10  20  30
Jornada Range            69  99  68  98 /  10  10  20  30
Hatch                    69 101  69 100 /  10  20  30  30
Columbus                 72 101  73  99 /  20  20  40  20
Orogrande                68  96  69  96 /   0  10  10  20
Mayhill                  56  88  57  85 /   0  20  10  40
Mescalero                56  88  57  86 /   0  20  10  40
Timberon                 54  85  55  84 /   0  20  10  30
Winston                  59  93  60  90 /  30  40  30  60
Hillsboro                68  98  68  95 /  20  40  40  50
Spaceport                66  99  66  97 /  10  20  20  40
Lake Roberts             61  94  60  92 /  30  50  40  70
Hurley                   64  96  64  95 /  30  40  30  50
Cliff                    65 103  63 102 /  40  60  40  60
Mule Creek               67  97  66  95 /  40  60  40  60
Faywood                  66  96  66  95 /  30  40  40  50
Animas                   70 101  69 100 /  40  50  50  50
Hachita                  69 100  69  98 /  40  30  40  40
Antelope Wells           69  97  68  96 /  40  50  50  50
Cloverdale               65  91  65  91 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice