787
FXUS64 KEPZ 141212
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
612 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

We will be very warm with just a slight chance for thunderstorms
today and Monday. Tuesday will be a warmest day of the week with
high temperatures running 5 to 7 degrees above average. Moisture
will also be on the increase on Tuesday, with good chances for
thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday. For the end of the week
into next weekend, our high temperatures will run a a few degrees
below average with a continued chance for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

An upper level ridge will be in control of our weather this week
and depending on its location, we will either be dry or have a
chance for thunderstorms. For Sunday and Monday, the upper level
ridge will be centered near the Four Corners region. The
circulation around the upper level ridge will continue to bring
drier continental air into the area. Precipitable water values
(PW`s) today and Monday will range 0.8 to 0.9. Whenever PW`s are
below an inch, it is much harder to get thunderstorms going and
that is the case both days, with just isolated thunderstorms west
of the Rio Grande today and Monday afternoon. High temperatures
both days will run a few degrees above average. Tuesday looks to
be the hottest day of the week with high temperatures running 5 to
7 degrees above average. That will put much of the lowlands, at or
a little above 100. Also on Tuesday we will see moisture beginning
to slip back into the region from the east. For Wednesday and
Thursday the upper level ridge will begin to drift back to the
west, that will allow even more moisture to move into the region
from the east. Also the circulation around the ridge will allow
for the occasional vort max to drop down from the south. In years
past, this pattern has lead to severe strength winds moving
southward through either the Tularosa basin or the Rio Grande
Valley. As the rain chances increase our high temperatures will
be going slowly down. For Wednesday and Thursday our high
temperatures will be near seasonal average, and for Friday and
into next weekend, our high temperatures will run around 5 degrees
below average. Our thunderstorm chances will continue for Friday
and into next weekend, with PW`s running in the 1.2 to 1.3 range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. We will have
unlimited ceilings today and tonight. The winds this morning will
be light and terrain driven. This afternoon we will see some low
end gusty winds from the southeast or south, but those winds gusts
will drop off around sunset. We will have light winds into the
morning ours on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

We start things out the next few days, pretty dry with min RH`s
today through Tuesday in the teens in the lowlands and in the 20`s
in area mountains. Moisture will be on the slow increase by
midweek so that by Thursday and Friday, min RH`s will be at or
above 25% across the whole area. For Wednesday into next weekend,
we will see daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Each day
with thunderstorms will see the potential for strong thunderstorm
outflow winds. Away from thunderstorms the winds will stay well
below critical levels. Ventilation rates the next couple of days
will range from good to very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  76 101  78 /   0  10   0  20
Sierra Blanca            91  66  92  67 /  20  10  10  10
Las Cruces               99  72 100  72 /   0  10  10  20
Alamogordo               96  69  98  70 /   0   0  10  10
Cloudcroft               76  52  77  54 /  10   0  20  10
Truth or Consequences    98  71  99  72 /   0   0  20  20
Silver City              92  66  92  65 /  20  30  70  50
Deming                   98  69 100  70 /   0  10  20  50
Lordsburg                98  70  99  70 /  10  40  60  50
West El Paso Metro       96  75  99  76 /   0  10  10  20
Dell City                95  69  98  70 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             97  70 100  71 /  10  10  10  20
Loma Linda               90  67  92  68 /  10  10  10  10
Fabens                   97  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             95  72  97  73 /   0  10  10  30
White Sands HQ           96  74  98  74 /  10  10  10  20
Jornada Range            96  69  98  70 /   0  10  10  20
Hatch                    99  69 101  70 /   0  10  10  30
Columbus                 97  72  99  74 /   0  10  20  50
Orogrande                95  69  97  70 /   0   0  10  10
Mayhill                  86  57  88  59 /  10   0  20  10
Mescalero                87  57  88  58 /  10   0  20  10
Timberon                 84  55  84  57 /  10   0  20  10
Winston                  89  59  92  60 /   0  10  50  30
Hillsboro                95  68  97  69 /  10  10  40  40
Spaceport                97  67  98  68 /   0   0  10  20
Lake Roberts             93  62  93  60 /  30  20  70  50
Hurley                   95  64  96  65 /  10  20  50  50
Cliff                   102  64 102  65 /  20  30  70  50
Mule Creek               96  68  95  67 /  30  40  80  50
Faywood                  93  67  95  67 /  10  20  40  50
Animas                   98  69  99  69 /  10  40  70  50
Hachita                  97  69  98  69 /  10  30  40  50
Antelope Wells           96  68  96  68 /  30  40  70  50
Cloverdale               91  64  90  64 /  40  50  80  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice