079
FXUS64 KEPZ 091132
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
532 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

The area will return to a more active weather pattern as
increasing moisture in the region will help fuel scattered showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evenings through Thursday.
Strong wind gusts, along with brief periods of small hail and
moderate to heavy rainfall will be the main threats from
thunderstorms. Mountain areas will have greater chances for
significant rainfall for the next few days. Rain and thunderstorm
chances will diminish Friday and Saturday as drier air moves into
the area. Temperatures will remain near or slightly above seasonal
averages through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

After a couple of mostly dry days, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase for the next few days as moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico flows into to the region as a part steady east
to southeast flow. Weak impulses embedded in a northerly flow
aloft, coming down the front side of a west coast high pressure
system, will help enhance thunderstorm development, especially
over the mountain areas for the next three days. Thunderstorm
development will be fueled by increased moisture as indicated by
atmospheric precipitable water values rising above an inch for the
next few days.

Mountain zones in the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains will
have the greatest chance for rainfall and storms. Those regions
have a potential for excessive rain amounts that could lead to
localized flooding along small streams and drainages. Recent
wildfire burn scars in the Sacramento Mtns will be especially
sensitive additional rainfall. A flash flood watch for the
Sacramento Mountains will be in effect this afternoon and evening
and again on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday looking to be the most active day with enhanced
thunderstorm development that could lead to several storms
producing very strong winds. Portions of the area will be under a
marginal risk of severe storms due to winds on Wednesday
afternoon. The Sacramento mountains will also be under an
increased risk of excessive rainfall with a potential for flooding
on Wednesday.

The west coast high pressure system will begin shift east and
re-center more toward the Four Corners Region on Thursday through
Saturday. This shift will have little impact on the local area
weather on Thursday as scattered shower and thunderstorm
development is still expected area wide. Less active weather is
expected Friday and Saturday as drier air aloft moves into the
area and deeper moisture shifts west into Arizona. This shift in
moisture to the west will limit thunderstorm development for
most areas in the forecast area, except for Grant and Hidalgo
counties of New Mexico, which will be closer to the deeper
moisture for continued scattered thunderstorm development both
days.

For Sunday and the first part of next week, the trend is for
deeper abundant moisture to move back over the state as high
pressure aloft weakens and an easterly wave moves into the area to
enhance thunderstorm development. This pattern change may set up a
more traditional Monsoonal flow that will bring a potential for
heavy rainfall to the region next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Shower and brief isolated thunderstorm development continues
this morning mainly south of the international border and near
KELP. They should end by 14z. Showers and thunderstorms will re-
develop over the mountains between 18z and 19z and then move into
the lowland deserts after 21z. Storm motion will be to the
southeast for much of storms that occur. The scattered
distribution of the storms will make it harder to pinpoint which
TAF sites may be impacted this afternoon. Will go with prob30
groups in the 21Z to 03Z range for timing. VFR conditions will
occur with brief periods of MVFR in a thunderstorm. Prevailing
winds will be from the east and southeast at generally under 10
knots, becoming gusty and variable from nearby thunderstorm
outflows in the afternoon and evening. Any ceilings that occur
will remain high generally above 10kft through the valid period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 AM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Moisture will increase across the region, reducing fire concerns
with increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms today through
Thursday. Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages through
the week. Easterly to southeasterly winds will trend toward lower
wind speeds, except near thunderstorms. Minimum RH values in the
afternoon will be in the upper teens to mid 20s across the
lowlands with 30s and 40s in the mountains. Overnight recoveries
will be decent with most values reading above the 50 percent
range. Rain and thunderstorm chances will be greatest over the
Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains. Recent burn scars will be
impacted by potential heavy rainfall over the next three days in
the mountains. Rain and thunderstorm chances will diminish Friday
and Saturday as drier air moves into the region and deeper
moisture shifts west into Arizona. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase next week. Vent rates will be good to
very good in the afternoons for the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  76  99  75 /  40  50  40  40
Sierra Blanca            91  67  92  67 /  40  50  50  30
Las Cruces               97  71  99  70 /  40  50  60  50
Alamogordo               94  65  94  64 /  40  50  60  40
Cloudcroft               70  50  70  49 /  70  40  90  60
Truth or Consequences    93  69  94  68 /  50  50  60  30
Silver City              89  64  90  63 /  70  50  80  50
Deming                   97  69  99  68 /  40  50  50  60
Lordsburg                98  70 100  69 /  40  50  50  50
West El Paso Metro       97  75  97  74 /  40  50  40  40
Dell City                94  69  94  68 /  30  50  50  20
Fort Hancock             98  71  98  71 /  40  60  50  30
Loma Linda               89  68  89  67 /  40  50  60  30
Fabens                   97  74  98  72 /  40  50  40  30
Santa Teresa             94  71  95  70 /  40  50  40  50
White Sands HQ           94  72  95  71 /  40  50  60  50
Jornada Range            94  67  96  65 /  40  50  60  50
Hatch                    97  68  99  66 /  40  50  60  40
Columbus                 97  73  98  71 /  40  50  40  60
Orogrande                93  68  94  67 /  40  50  70  40
Mayhill                  79  54  80  54 /  70  40  80  50
Mescalero                81  54  82  54 /  60  40  90  60
Timberon                 79  53  79  53 /  60  40  80  40
Winston                  84  58  87  57 /  70  50  70  40
Hillsboro                90  66  92  64 /  70  50  70  50
Spaceport                93  64  94  62 /  40  50  60  40
Lake Roberts             88  60  89  59 /  80  50  80  50
Hurley                   92  64  94  63 /  60  50  70  40
Cliff                    99  64 100  63 /  60  50  60  40
Mule Creek               93  66  94  66 /  50  50  60  40
Faywood                  89  65  92  64 /  60  50  70  50
Animas                   99  68 100  68 /  40  50  50  50
Hachita                  97  69  98  67 /  40  50  50  60
Antelope Wells           97  69  98  67 /  40  50  50  60
Cloverdale               93  67  94  65 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ415-
     416.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening
     for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...04-Lundeen