985
FXUS64 KEPZ 100002
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
602 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

A few active days with daily shower and thunderstorm chances for
the Borderland. The main threat with these storms will be gusty
winds and locally heavy rain. A couple of drier days for Friday
and Saturday before some moisture returns for early next week.
Temperatures during the next week will remain in the 90s for the
lowlands with 70s and 80s in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Models remain consistent through the period with fairly stable
pattern across the country. Upper high over the west will be
shifting toward the Four Corners region by the weekend and then
setup across the Central Rockies. This keeps the CWA in north to
northeast flow initially with daily thunderstorm chances. Best
coverage looks to be this aftn/eve and again Wed with a gradual
decrease in coverage into Saturday from east to west. The main
threat with these storms looks to be heavy rain with some weakness
in the mid level flow supporting training/backbuilding cells. Wind
gusts over 50 mph and some hail also possible. Temperatures the
next few days will be in the mid to upper 90s for most of the
lowlands with 70s and 80s in the mountains.

As the high moves into Wrn CO/Ern UT, upper flow turns more
northeast to east and brings in some drier continental air which
mixes into the low levels and decreases storm chances
significantly for all but the far west. NBM Pops seem to have
caught onto this finally, but still think pops out west were a
little high and lowered about 10 percent.

Differences in the models do start to show up for Sun-Tue. Each
model does seem to be consistent with it`s previous run, but
differ on an important feature, an easterly wave that stalls out
somewhere between the RGV and Big Bend. GFS and it`s ensembles are
the furthest N and W, while the EC and Canadian are further S and
E, therefore drier. These easterly waves in the Monsoon Season can
be prolific rain producers in this area, so future shifts will
need to monitor trends closely. NBM Pops are pretty high and with
still quite a bit of uncertainty in placement, thought lowering
them a little was warranted, but even with the furthest SE
placement, at least SE Hudspeth county could be in the area of
possibly heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 527 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected through the period across
all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW090-BKN250. The winds will be
breezy to windy and variable in direction due to several Pulse TS
across the the Borderland. These storms will continue to move to
the south and southeast through the next several hours. The winds
should be become light to breezy thereafter. Also, TS should
diminish by around 03Z. Except for areas of HZ and heavy RA where
the VSBY could be reduced to 1SM, there should be no reduction in
the VSBY across the runways for much of the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Fire concerns will remain on the lower side through the period as
southeast surface winds keep low level moisture around and min
RH`s in the upper teens and 20s. There will be a daily chance for
showers and thunderstorms with the greatest coverage expected this
afternoon through Thursday. Temperatures will remain near average
during this time. Slightly drier air moves in for Fri/Sat before
another moisture push gets here early next week. Winds through the
period will be on the light side except near thunderstorms. Vent
rates will be good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76  96  77  96 /  40  40  60  30
Sierra Blanca            69  92  70  90 /  40  50  40  40
Las Cruces               70  97  71  94 /  40  60  60  40
Alamogordo               65  94  66  92 /  30  60  50  50
Cloudcroft               49  70  50  68 /  40  90  60  70
Truth or Consequences    69  95  70  93 /  30  60  50  50
Silver City              65  90  66  89 /  30  80  50  80
Deming                   69  99  70  96 /  40  50  50  40
Lordsburg                70  99  71  98 /  40  50  50  40
West El Paso Metro       75  96  76  95 /  40  40  60  30
Dell City                67  93  68  93 /  30  60  50  40
Fort Hancock             71  97  72  96 /  40  50  40  40
Loma Linda               68  89  69  88 /  30  60  50  30
Fabens                   74  97  75  96 /  30  40  50  30
Santa Teresa             71  95  72  94 /  40  40  60  30
White Sands HQ           72  95  73  93 /  40  60  60  50
Jornada Range            67  95  68  93 /  50  60  60  50
Hatch                    68  98  69  96 /  40  60  50  50
Columbus                 73  99  74  96 /  40  40  60  30
Orogrande                68  95  69  91 /  40  60  60  50
Mayhill                  54  78  55  79 /  30  80  60  70
Mescalero                54  79  55  79 /  40  90  70  70
Timberon                 53  79  54  78 /  30  80  60  70
Winston                  58  87  59  85 /  30  70  50  80
Hillsboro                66  92  67  91 /  30  70  50  70
Spaceport                64  94  65  93 /  40  60  50  50
Lake Roberts             58  89  59  85 /  30  80  50  80
Hurley                   64  94  65  92 /  30  70  50  70
Cliff                    62  98  63  94 /  30  60  50  70
Mule Creek               61  94  62  91 /  30  60  50  70
Faywood                  65  92  66  90 /  30  70  50  70
Animas                   69 100  70  96 /  40  50  50  30
Hachita                  70  98  71  96 /  40  50  60  30
Antelope Wells           67  98  68  95 /  50  50  50  30
Cloverdale               66  95  67  93 /  50  50  60  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-416.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening
     for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira