415
FXUS64 KEPZ 111126
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
526 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

With the summer monsoon in full swing, showers and thunderstorms
will continue to occur across the region on a daily basis. While
storm coverage will drop off a bit heading into the weekend, an
uptick in activity and overall coverage of thunderstorms will
occur early next week. In the meantime temperatures will not be
excessively hot with high temperatures staying near or a little
above average for the foreseeable future.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Monsoon season has certainly been a bit more productive so far
this year than last. The key to this has been the availability of
moisture as well as enough triggers to initiate the daily
convection. And it seems that trend is set to continue throughout
the current forecast period, although there should be a brief lull
in activity Friday and Saturday.

For today the driving force behind coverage and location of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms is a well defined upper ridge
that has been sitting over southern Nevada for a couple of days.
Models are in very good agreement with slowly lifting this ridge
a bit to the north and east over the next 24 hours. In essence
this will shift our mid-level flow from a north-south orientation
to more of a northeast-southwest type flow today. The end result
will be a shift in the best coverage of storms with the focus
extending from the Sacramentos back into the Gila and western
forecast zones.

Meanwhile the high should continue to drift a bit more north and
east Friday into Saturday which will allow for a more east to west
flow pattern. Currently the trend with this is to introduce drier
air from the east, consequently resulting in the aforementioned
reduction in coverage of storms heading into the weekend. In
general, PW values currently are running around an inch but are
progged to drop to between .50" and .75" during this time frame.

Looking further down the road, the moisture will return starting
Sunday and continuing into next week as an inverted trough is
expected to move in from the east. This will effectively increase
the coverage of showers and storms area wide. Throughout all of
this temps will stay warm, but be tempered a bit by the monsoonal
moisture. While the weekend may be a tad bit warmer than other
days, lowland highs should generally stay in the upper 90`s to
around 100 through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF
sites with CIG SCT100-BKN250. The winds will be generally light
and variable through at least 19Z. The winds will become breezy 9
to 12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts while out from the southeast
across the terminals between 20 and 00Z Friday. There will be a
few TS across the Borderland after 18Z. ROB30 introduced at KTCS
and KDMN as storms will favor north and west areas this afternoon
and early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Fire weather concerns remain low through the forecast period.
Monsoonal moisture is here to stay with relative humidities
above critical levels, although somewhat drier air moves in late
in the week and early in the weekend. Winds outside of outflows
from daily thunderstorms will be light to modestly breezy mostly
from the east and southeast. Storm coverage shifts to the west a
bit today with the threat for locally heavy rain and flooding
being the primary threats. A general reduction in storm activity
is expected Friday and Saturday, but better coverage area wide
returns for next week as a moisture rich disturbance moves in from
the southeast. Fuels will continue to moisten as a result of
daily rain chances. Temperatures remain near or just above normal.

Min RHs will be 15-25% in the lowlands through Saturday, 20-40%
in the mountains. Vent rates range from good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  98  76  99  76 /  20  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca            90  64  91  65 /  10  10  10  10
Las Cruces               97  71  98  71 /  30  30   0  10
Alamogordo               93  66  94  66 /  30  20   0   0
Cloudcroft               70  50  72  49 /  60  20  30   0
Truth or Consequences    94  68  95  70 /  40  50  10  10
Silver City              88  64  88  65 /  80  50  50  30
Deming                   97  68  97  69 /  30  50  10  10
Lordsburg                97  71  97  71 /  60  50  30  30
West El Paso Metro       96  75  97  75 /  20  20   0   0
Dell City                95  67  95  67 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             97  69  98  70 /  10  10   0  10
Loma Linda               89  67  89  67 /  20  10   0   0
Fabens                   97  72  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             95  72  95  71 /  20  20   0  10
White Sands HQ           95  73  95  74 /  40  30  10   0
Jornada Range            95  68  95  69 /  40  30  10  10
Hatch                    97  68  98  69 /  40  50  10  10
Columbus                 97  73  97  73 /  20  40   0  10
Orogrande                92  68  93  69 /  30  20   0   0
Mayhill                  80  55  83  55 /  60  10  20   0
Mescalero                81  54  83  54 /  60  20  20   0
Timberon                 79  53  81  53 /  50  10  20   0
Winston                  86  58  87  58 /  70  50  40  20
Hillsboro                92  66  92  67 /  50  60  30  20
Spaceport                94  65  95  65 /  40  40  10  10
Lake Roberts             88  59  88  61 /  90  40  60  30
Hurley                   92  64  93  64 /  70  50  30  20
Cliff                    98  63  98  64 /  80  40  50  30
Mule Creek               93  66  92  68 /  80  40  70  40
Faywood                  90  66  91  66 /  60  60  30  20
Animas                   99  68  98  69 /  50  60  30  30
Hachita                  97  68  96  68 /  40  60  10  20
Antelope Wells           97  69  96  69 /  30  60  20  20
Cloverdale               92  68  92  67 /  50  80  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...27-Laney