804
FXUS64 KEPZ 120525
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1125 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Chances for rainfall will decrease for the rest of the week and
into the weekend due to drier air moving in. However, small
chances for storms will remain. Rain chances will once again
increase next week as a push of moisture makes it into the
region. High temperatures will be close to average in the upper
90s. Winds will be light and generally from the southeast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Currently, thunderstorms are forming in the Sacramento Mountains
and the Gila region. The lowlands remain relatively dry. PWATs
are at around 0.8 to 0.9 inches and dewpoints are in the mid 40s.
Models suggest that outflow from some of these mountain storms
may kick up a few thunderstorms in the lowlands later tonight, but
in general, most rainfall will remain to our west. This is due to
the position of an upper level high, which is over the southern
Nevada region. The high is shifting winds to a more northeasterly
direction, which is causing thunderstorm formation to favor the
western regions of our CWA. Lower CAPE of 250 to 500 J/kg means
that severe storm potential is low. High temperatures will be
close to the climatological average in the mid to upper 90s today
and for the rest of the forecast period in the lowlands.

The high will migrate to the east over the next few days and will
sit over the Four Corners region. The high`s position will allow
for drier air to filter in to the region from the northeast. This
drier air will further reduce chances for showers and
thunderstorms going into the weekend. By Saturday, PWATs will
decrease to 0.6 to 0.7 inches and dewpoints will decrease to the
upper 30s and low 40s.

Changes occur on Sunday as an inverted trough pushes into the
region from the east. This trough will pull more moisture into the
region as well as providing a lifting mechanism in the form of
Positive Vorticity Advection (PVA). Winds will become more south-
southeasterly but will still be relatively light. PWATs will
increase to around 1.0 inch and dewpoints will increase to the
lower 50s. Greater CAPE of 500 to 600 J/kg will be present across
the region, so stronger storms are possible. These stronger storms
can cause heavy rain, gusty winds, and flash flooding. This
pattern will remain for the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with SKC-FEW100.
Surface winds east/southeast 8-12 knots. Developing after 18Z,
mainly over the Gila/Black Range...isolated -TSRA BKN050CB. A few
of these storms could produce small hail and wind gusts of 30-40
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Low fire weather concerns for this forecast period primarily due
to higher moisture levels and lighter winds. Min RH values will
range from 15-20% in the lowlands and 25-30% in higher elevations.
Despite a drying pattern over the weekend due to an upper level
high moving eastward and sitting over the Four Corners region,
there will still be enough moisture to mitigate fire weather
concerns. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be greater
in the western regions and the mountains. Winds will be mainly
from the southeast at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will be close to
the climatological average.

An inverted trough will arrive on Sunday and will increase
moisture levels in the region for next week. Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase across the board due to the
greater lifting mechanisms and increased moisture content.
Localized heavy rain from stronger storms could cause strong gusts
and flash flooding. Ventilation rates will range from good to
very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75  99  75  99 /  10   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca            64  90  64  91 /  10   0  10  20
Las Cruces               71  97  70  97 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               65  94  66  96 /  10  10   0  10
Cloudcroft               49  73  50  74 /  10  20   0  20
Truth or Consequences    69  94  70  95 /  30  10  10  10
Silver City              64  89  65  90 /  50  40  20  40
Deming                   70  96  68  97 /  20   0  10  10
Lordsburg                71  97  70  97 /  50  20  20  20
West El Paso Metro       75  96  75  96 /  10   0   0  10
Dell City                67  94  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             69  97  69  97 /  10   0  10  20
Loma Linda               67  89  66  89 /  10   0   0  10
Fabens                   72  97  71  97 /  10   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             72  94  71  95 /  10   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           73  95  73  95 /  20   0   0  10
Jornada Range            68  94  68  96 /  20   0   0  10
Hatch                    69  97  69  98 /  20   0  10  10
Columbus                 72  96  72  97 /  20   0  10   0
Orogrande                68  93  68  94 /  10   0   0  10
Mayhill                  54  83  55  83 /  10  10   0  10
Mescalero                54  84  54  85 /  10  20   0  10
Timberon                 53  81  54  82 /  10  10   0  10
Winston                  57  86  57  88 /  30  30  20  30
Hillsboro                66  92  66  92 /  30  20  20  20
Spaceport                65  94  65  95 /  20   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             59  89  60  90 /  50  40  30  40
Hurley                   64  91  63  92 /  40  20  10  20
Cliff                    63  98  65 101 /  40  40  30  40
Mule Creek               65  92  67  94 /  30  50  40  50
Faywood                  66  91  66  92 /  40  20  20  20
Animas                   69  98  69  98 /  50  10  20  20
Hachita                  69  95  67  97 /  40   0  10  10
Antelope Wells           69  95  68  96 /  40  10  20  20
Cloverdale               68  91  67  92 /  70  20  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown