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Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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868 FXUS64 KEPZ 142051 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 251 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Mostly dry conditions will continue through Monday. Best chance of rain and thunderstorms the next couple days will be in the Gila Region and Bootheel of New Mexico. Moisture gradually increases across the region all week, with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms spreading across southern New Mexico and far west Texas by mid week. The dry conditions will lead to above normal temperatures for the next few days with cooler temperatures in the latter half of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The high pressure circulation centered over the Four Corners Region will continue to dominate the local weather pattern with mostly dry conditions the next couple of days. The high circulation is tapping drier continental air to the east and transporting it over the area, while at the same time keeping deeper moisture pushed mainly south and west of the area in the near term. Rain and thunderstorm development is less likely over the area this afternoon and Monday, except for portions of the Gila Region and Bootheel areas (Grant and Hidalgo counties) which are closer to deeper moisture sources. The dry condiitons will also lead to warmer temperatures the next few days with upper 90s to lower 100s possible accross the lowlands. Tuesday will see the high circulation drift south, roughly centered over the state of New Mexico. With the center of the high closer to the local area, day time temperatures are expected to get hot with values several degrees above normal in the lower 100s for much of the lowlands. At this time temperatures are expected to stay just below heat advisory thresholds but it will remain warm. Thunderstorm chances will increase ever so slighly on Tuesday as a modest increase in moisture will lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm development in the afternoon and evening, primarily for the mountains and lowlands west of the Rio Grande. Wednesday will see a transition to a wetter more unstable weather environment with precipitable water values rising above an inch, indicative of sufficient moisture to fuel and sustain thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm development will be enhanced by a weak upper level disturbance rotating around the high and a frontal boundary pushing into the that will add lift and instability to environment to increase rain and thunderstorm chances. There is with the increased rain activity there is marginal risk of excessive rainfall, that could lead to flash flooding, especially for the sensitive wildfire burn scars in the region. With moisture in place, widespread rain and thunderstorm activity is expected to last through the end of the week with at least a chance of thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through Saturday. With the increased moisture and rain chances day time temperatures will turn cooler with temperatures expected to drop slightly below seasonal averages in the latter part of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Dry weather with VFR conditions expected through the valid period. Unlimited ceilings with a few afternoon clouds are expected. Winds will primarily from the east southeast the rest of this aftenoon at 8 to 12 knots with higher gusts. After 03z winds will be light variable with terrain driven directions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 147 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Dry warm conditions will occur over most of the area the next couple of days as moisture gradually returns to the region. Rain and thunderstorm development will be mainly limited to the Gila Region and Bootheel areas of New Mexico the next couple of days. As moisture increases for the remainder of next week showers and thunderstorms will become more frequent with greater rainfall amounts expected. As moisture increases, minimum RH values will also increase with percentages in the mid to upper teens lowlands with lower 20s mountains the next few days, then rising to the 20s and 30s later in the week. Winds will remain light, except near thunderstorms, mainly from easterly to southerly direction during the day with a more terrain induced drainage wind direction overnight. Vent rates will good to very good in the daytime periods. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 76 101 77 103 / 10 10 20 10 Sierra Blanca 66 94 68 95 / 10 10 10 20 Las Cruces 71 101 72 102 / 10 10 20 10 Alamogordo 68 98 70 99 / 0 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 51 78 54 77 / 0 20 20 40 Truth or Consequences 70 100 72 100 / 0 20 20 30 Silver City 65 93 66 93 / 30 70 50 70 Deming 69 101 71 101 / 10 20 50 20 Lordsburg 69 99 69 100 / 40 60 50 60 West El Paso Metro 75 99 76 101 / 10 10 20 10 Dell City 69 98 70 100 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 70 100 71 101 / 10 10 20 10 Loma Linda 67 93 69 93 / 10 10 10 10 Fabens 73 100 74 100 / 10 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 72 98 72 99 / 10 10 30 10 White Sands HQ 73 98 74 100 / 10 10 20 10 Jornada Range 69 99 70 100 / 10 10 20 10 Hatch 69 102 70 103 / 10 10 30 20 Columbus 72 100 74 101 / 10 20 50 10 Orogrande 69 97 71 98 / 0 10 10 10 Mayhill 57 88 58 88 / 0 20 20 30 Mescalero 57 88 59 88 / 0 20 20 40 Timberon 54 86 57 85 / 0 20 20 20 Winston 59 92 61 93 / 10 50 30 50 Hillsboro 67 97 70 98 / 10 40 40 50 Spaceport 66 100 68 100 / 0 10 20 20 Lake Roberts 61 94 61 93 / 20 70 50 70 Hurley 64 96 65 96 / 20 50 50 50 Cliff 65 103 65 103 / 30 70 50 70 Mule Creek 68 96 67 95 / 30 80 50 70 Faywood 67 96 68 97 / 20 40 50 50 Animas 69 99 69 99 / 40 70 50 60 Hachita 69 99 69 99 / 30 40 50 40 Antelope Wells 68 96 67 96 / 40 70 50 60 Cloverdale 64 91 63 90 / 50 80 70 70 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen