Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
840 FXUS64 KEPZ 051129 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 529 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Thunderstorm chances return to areas mainly east of the Continental Divide for today, with chances spreading area wide for Saturday. Sunday looks dry and hot. On Monday, we return to our daily pattern of at least scattered mountain and isolated to widely scattered lowland thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near to above normal with Sunday the hottest day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 After a relatively quiet day weather wise, we expect thunderstorm activity to increase this afternoon. This increase is because moisture is expected to arrive via an easterly push later this morning and into the afternoon. Western areas, including the Gila, do not look as active, however, likely from the upper-level dry air being pushed in from the northwest around a high centered off the CA coast. NBM had `chance` POPs for areas west of the Divide, but I trimmed those down as no model guidance I can find seems to support those POPs. The HREF keeps the west dry for the most part. We more or less remain in this pattern for Saturday, keeping thunderstorm chances in the picture. Moisture quality is more evenly distributed than it will be today, so storm chances will be area wide. HRRR seems to be hinting at a bit of a feature that will help organize storms some tomorrow as well though its hard to say exactly it is except for maybe a weak side-door front though temperature advection is neutral to even positive. Main threat to storms for both today and tomorrow is locally heavy rain and flash flooding, especially for the burn scars in the Sacs as well as gusty winds, potentially strong. By Sunday, dry air will move in behind the aforementioned boundary, limiting POPs to the mountains, the Bootheel, and far southern Hudspeth County. There will be very few storms, if any, in our CWA that day. With the drier air, highs will climb with temps 103-107 common in the lowlands. Heat products will likely be needed. The dry and hot weather is only expected to last one day as another front arrives Monday to reinvigorate moisture and storm chances. Depending on where the front winds up, portions of the CWA may receive some boost to storm chances thanks to surface convergence from the front. We pretty much finish out next work week with a somewhat monsoonal pattern. The high off the CA coast will re-center toward or just north of the Four Corners keeping us within easterly flow. Initially the moisture will be mainly be recycled moisture, but we`ll eventually see an open feed to the Gulf of Mexico. PWAT values will be just over 1" for the period, more than sufficient for storms. The only offsetting factor though will be the orientation of the high, which will be a bit elongated north-south. All that to say, next week will feature at least daily scattered mountain and isolated to widely scattered lowland storms in the late afternoon and into the evening. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Mainly VFR conditions expected today with FEW-SCT150/250. Winds will generally be southeasterly with speeds topping out around 10 knots with a few gusts to around 20 knots. TSRA/SHRA are expected to develop again this afternoon, especially east of the Rio Grande with impacts most likely to occur at KELP. Timing and overall coverage remain a bit too uncertain at this time to mention within TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 210 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Drier air has moved into much of the region, but moisture is expected to return east to west throughout the day. The Gila, however, will still see min RH values fall into the lower to mid teens, but winds are expected to mainly be light throughout the afternoon. For areas mainly east of the Rio Grande and especially the Sacramento Mountains, there will be a chance for thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances spread area-wide on Saturday, with min RH values ranging from around 20 to 25 percent. Sunday looks to be the day that will feature elevated fire concerns as hot and dry conditions overspread the entire area. Min RH values will drop into the lower teens and single digits. Fortunately though, winds look to only top out around 10 MPH. Sunday looks to be the only hot and dry day as a backdoor front looks to bring moisture and storm chances back to the entire area on Monday onward. Venting will range good to excellent for today with mainly good for Saturday. Sunday will see very good to excellent venting. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 99 77 99 78 / 40 40 30 40 Sierra Blanca 90 67 92 69 / 50 60 40 40 Las Cruces 99 72 98 72 / 30 40 30 40 Alamogordo 95 66 94 69 / 50 30 40 20 Cloudcroft 71 50 71 54 / 80 40 70 30 Truth or Consequences 96 71 95 68 / 20 30 50 20 Silver City 92 65 89 63 / 20 20 70 40 Deming 99 71 97 67 / 20 30 40 50 Lordsburg 99 71 97 68 / 20 30 50 40 West El Paso Metro 97 75 97 77 / 40 40 30 40 Dell City 94 69 94 69 / 40 30 30 20 Fort Hancock 98 73 98 73 / 50 50 40 40 Loma Linda 89 66 89 69 / 50 40 50 40 Fabens 98 74 98 75 / 50 40 30 40 Santa Teresa 96 72 95 72 / 40 40 30 50 White Sands HQ 96 73 95 75 / 50 40 50 40 Jornada Range 96 68 95 67 / 40 20 50 40 Hatch 100 68 97 67 / 20 30 50 40 Columbus 98 73 97 72 / 20 30 30 50 Orogrande 94 69 94 70 / 40 40 50 30 Mayhill 78 55 81 59 / 80 40 70 30 Mescalero 82 54 82 59 / 70 40 70 20 Timberon 79 53 80 56 / 80 40 70 30 Winston 88 58 88 57 / 20 20 60 20 Hillsboro 94 66 92 64 / 20 30 60 40 Spaceport 96 66 94 63 / 20 20 50 30 Lake Roberts 93 61 90 58 / 20 20 70 30 Hurley 94 66 93 63 / 20 20 60 40 Cliff 102 66 99 63 / 20 20 60 30 Mule Creek 97 67 94 65 / 20 20 50 30 Faywood 94 66 92 63 / 20 30 60 40 Animas 99 70 98 68 / 20 30 50 50 Hachita 97 68 96 66 / 20 30 40 50 Antelope Wells 97 69 96 67 / 30 30 50 60 Cloverdale 94 66 92 64 / 30 30 60 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ415- 416. && $$ FORECASTER...34-Brown