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Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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137 FXUS64 KEPZ 150933 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 333 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Our hot, mostly dry weather will continue today and Tuesday, with just a chance for a few thunderstorms along the New Mexico and Arizona border. For Wednesday and Thursday, moisture will begin to return to the forecast. We will still be very warm, but we will also see better rain chances. For Friday and into the weekend, our rain chances get better and our high temperatures slip a little below average for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Hot temperatures have returned as an upper level ridge has settled over northern New Mexico. Along with the hot temperatures for today and tomorrow, we will see limited rainfall chances. The best chances for thunderstorms the next couple of days, will be west of the Rio Grande. High temperatures today and Tuesday will run 5 to 7 degrees above average. For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper level ridge will drift north and be centered over the Four Corners region. This new position will allow some moisture from the east to slip into the region. For Wednesday and Thursday, we will see at least a chance for rain area wide both afternoons and into the evening hours. Despite the increased moisture and better rain chances, we will still be hot on Wednesday with high temperatures running around 5 degrees above average, but by Thrusday our highs will drop a little below average. For Friday and into the weekend, the upper level ridge will be on the move again and will recenter over Las Vegas. This will give us northerly flow aloft, while at the surface the southeast winds will continue to bring moisture into the region. With the upper level ridge off to our northwest, we will see vort maxes rotate down the front side of the ridge and across New Mexico. The moisture combined with the instability associated with the vort maxes will give us a good chance for rain each day for Friday through Sunday. Along with the better rain chances and increased moisture we will see our high temperatures running 5 to 7 degrees below average. Looking beyond this forecast package, the pattern for the last week of July will change very little, so we look to continue our slightly below average high temperatures and a decent chance for rain each afternoon and evening. A much better forecast than last year`s ridiculously hot and dry July. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites for the period. Winds will remain light and variable for most of the evening with a shift to the SE tomorrow afternoon. Winds look to remain light throughout the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Our rain chances today and Tuesday, will be limited to locations west of the Rio Grande. Min RH`s today and tomorrow will be in the teens in the lowlands and in the 20`s in area mountains. By midweek, moisture will be on the increase and we will see better rain chances and higher min RH`s. By Thursday, min RH`s will be near or above 25% across the region. For Friday and into the coming weekend, we will see a good chance for rain with min RH`s of 20% or higher. Winds this week will be light, from the south or southeast. Each day, through the end of the week, we will see the potential for strong and gusty outflow winds associated with thunderstorms. Ventilation rates the next couple of days will range from good to very good. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 101 77 103 78 / 0 10 10 30 Sierra Blanca 92 68 94 69 / 10 10 20 20 Las Cruces 101 72 103 73 / 10 10 10 40 Alamogordo 98 70 100 70 / 0 0 10 20 Cloudcroft 77 53 78 53 / 10 0 20 20 Truth or Consequences 99 72 101 73 / 0 10 20 30 Silver City 92 65 93 66 / 40 30 60 50 Deming 100 70 102 71 / 10 20 20 50 Lordsburg 98 70 99 69 / 40 50 60 60 West El Paso Metro 98 75 101 77 / 0 10 10 30 Dell City 98 70 100 71 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 99 72 101 74 / 10 10 20 30 Loma Linda 92 68 94 71 / 10 10 10 20 Fabens 99 73 101 75 / 10 10 10 30 Santa Teresa 97 72 99 73 / 0 10 10 40 White Sands HQ 98 74 100 75 / 10 10 10 30 Jornada Range 98 70 101 71 / 10 10 10 30 Hatch 101 70 103 72 / 10 10 20 30 Columbus 99 74 101 74 / 10 30 20 60 Orogrande 96 70 98 71 / 10 0 10 20 Mayhill 87 58 89 58 / 10 0 20 10 Mescalero 88 59 89 59 / 10 0 20 20 Timberon 85 56 86 58 / 10 0 20 20 Winston 91 60 93 60 / 20 10 50 40 Hillsboro 96 69 98 70 / 10 20 40 40 Spaceport 98 68 101 69 / 0 10 20 30 Lake Roberts 93 62 94 61 / 40 30 60 50 Hurley 95 65 97 65 / 30 30 50 50 Cliff 102 65 103 65 / 50 30 60 50 Mule Creek 95 68 96 66 / 60 30 60 60 Faywood 95 68 97 68 / 20 20 50 50 Animas 98 70 99 69 / 50 50 70 70 Hachita 98 70 99 68 / 30 40 40 70 Antelope Wells 95 68 96 68 / 60 50 70 80 Cloverdale 89 63 90 64 / 70 60 70 80 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice