Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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681 FXUS64 KEPZ 060549 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1149 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Much of the next week will see near average temperatures and daily thunderstorm chances with locally heavy rain the main threat. The one day where it will be very hot and dry will be Sunday when high temperatures get well above 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 For the most part, a fairly persistent pattern across the region for the upcoming week. Upper high currently centered just off the Northern CA Coast will drift slowly southeast into the Great Basin by the end of the period with a series of disturbances in northwest flow aloft keeping a chance for showers and thunderstorms going almost daily except Sunday. Tonight we will see storms develop off the higher elevation, mainly along and east of the RGV then moving south. Main threat will be locally heavy rain with shear not very impressive. Some models showing hints of some after midnight activity, not overly convinced of this given PW`s still on the low side, but there is some instability aloft that could allow a couple isolated cells to develop. Generally the same setup for Sat, but instability and moisture push further west, so could get storms CWA-wide, but again lacking shear for much organized severe. Saturday will see highs similar to today with most areas remaining below 100. Sunday is the one day different than the others. Low level flow turns west to northwest and brings in much drier, more stable air resulting in a day with little to no storm coverage and hot temperatures. Looks like most lowland areas will be above 100 degrees with up to 108 possible. Have issued a Heat Advisory for Sunday. Moisture starts pushing back in Monday, how far is still uncertain. GFS continues to show strong push during the day through much of the CWA while the EC and NAM have a weaker push only to the Rio Grande. Ensemble means for each respective model support their operational. This is one time where the NAM typically has a better handle on low level features, and since it`s more in line with the EC, will use that for this forecast. This means moisture mainly east with temperatures still up near 100 for areas along and west of the Rio Grande and gradually cooling down to the east. Highs will be cooler than Sunday, so do not think Heat Advisory will need to be extended. Tue-Fri are all fairly similar with N to NE flow over the region. Not really any mid/high level moisture present, but low level east to southeast flow will keep dew points in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Not a true monsoonal pattern since even with the low level E/SE winds, trajectories aren`t from the Gulf thanks in part to Beryl. Daily thunderstorm chances expected though. Main threat will be heavy rain, even though PW`s never get much above 1.1-1.2", wind profile supports training/back building storms. Temperatures will be near average with mainly mid to upper 90s expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 This evening`s active weather is ending with lingering storms in Hudspeth county expected to last a couple of more hours. A large thunderstorm complex over northern Mexico, well to the southwest of KDMN, is throwing a large band of high clouds across our region which will give us high ceilings tonight of BKN250. On Saturday, it looks like it could be another active day for thunderstorms. We will likely have some mid and high ceilings of BKN120-250 and we could have some brief lower ceilings of BKN070 associated with a thunderstorm. Strong outflow winds will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening. It is too early to tell if any of our airports will be directly impacted by a thunderstorms, but have put in prob30 groups into the TAF`s for the afternoon. so I have left the mention out of the TAF`s. Winds tonight will stay light. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Much of the next week will see daily shower and thunderstorm chances as decent low level moisture will be around. The main threat will be locally heavy rain with concerns for recent burn scars. The one exception will be Sunday when a quick turn of winds to the west bring high temperatures above 100 for the lowlands with RH`s into the single digits and teens. Winds Sunday will also be 10-20 mph at times creating near critical fire conditions. Other days will see RH`s in the mid teens to mid 20s with lowest RH`s being in the lowlands west of the Divide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 99 75 99 78 / 40 20 50 40 Sierra Blanca 90 67 91 69 / 50 40 40 40 Las Cruces 99 72 98 72 / 30 20 50 40 Alamogordo 95 65 94 69 / 50 20 40 20 Cloudcroft 71 49 71 54 / 80 30 70 30 Truth or Consequences 96 70 97 68 / 20 20 50 30 Silver City 92 66 89 67 / 20 10 40 20 Deming 99 70 98 67 / 20 20 40 30 Lordsburg 99 70 97 68 / 20 10 30 20 West El Paso Metro 97 74 97 77 / 40 30 50 40 Dell City 94 69 94 69 / 40 20 30 20 Fort Hancock 98 72 99 73 / 50 30 50 40 Loma Linda 89 66 89 69 / 50 20 50 40 Fabens 98 70 99 75 / 50 20 50 40 Santa Teresa 96 71 95 72 / 40 20 50 40 White Sands HQ 96 72 95 75 / 50 20 50 40 Jornada Range 96 66 97 64 / 40 20 50 40 Hatch 100 67 97 67 / 20 10 50 30 Columbus 98 72 99 72 / 20 20 40 40 Orogrande 94 68 94 70 / 40 20 50 30 Mayhill 78 54 81 61 / 80 30 70 30 Mescalero 82 53 82 60 / 70 30 60 20 Timberon 79 52 80 56 / 80 20 70 30 Winston 88 57 89 57 / 20 20 50 20 Hillsboro 94 65 94 64 / 20 10 60 30 Spaceport 96 65 97 63 / 20 20 50 30 Lake Roberts 93 55 90 58 / 20 10 40 20 Hurley 94 64 93 63 / 20 10 40 20 Cliff 102 60 98 63 / 20 10 40 20 Mule Creek 97 59 94 61 / 20 10 40 20 Faywood 94 65 92 63 / 20 10 50 30 Animas 99 69 98 68 / 20 10 30 30 Hachita 97 67 96 66 / 20 10 30 30 Antelope Wells 97 68 96 67 / 30 20 30 30 Cloverdale 94 66 92 64 / 30 10 40 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418>424. NM...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ407- 409>411-417-427>429. Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ415-416. && $$ FORECASTER...04-Lundeen