800
AXPZ20 KNHC 070910
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends north of 07N along 86W moving west at
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active in the SW flow
south of the monsoon trough ahead of the tropical wave, from 05N
to 07N between 85W and 87W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 09N1000W to 11N110W to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from
09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is active near the Gulf of Fonseca north of 10N
between 87W and 89W. Scattered moderate convection is active from
07N to 09N between 123W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough near Guadalupe Island is breaking up the subtropical
ridge across the region, resulting in light to gentle breezes
across the entire Mexican offshore waters. The exception was
noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass that showed
moderate winds pulsing off Cabo San Lucas. Another trough
extends along 115W from 15N to 20N between Socorro and Clarion
Islands near 18N113W. Combined seas are 3 to 5 ft in mostly
southerly swell.

For the forecast, aside from moderate winds pulsing to fresh over
the northern Gulf of California and off Cabo San Lucas, the
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through
mid week across Mexican offshore waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light breezes are noted north of the monsoon trough, with mostly
gentle breezes elsewhere. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW
swell. Abundant moisture and convergent SW winds into the monsoon
trough ahead of a tropical wave are supporting scattered showers
and thunderstorms from 05N to 07N between 85W and 87W. The
approaching tropical wave is also supporting clusters of
thunderstorms near the Gulf of Fonseca.

For the forecast, the energy from the tropical wave will mostly
lift northwestward across Central America following Beryl, and
not progress westward much into the eastern Pacific. Farther
south, swell to 8 ft near the Galapagos will subside through
late today. Elsewhere, little change is expected through Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail west of the Galapagos
Islands, as noted by recent buoy observations and ship reports
from the R/V Sally Ride. Combined seas are estimated to be 6 to 8
ft in this area. Farther west, 1021 mb high pressure is centered
near 32N135W. The gradient between the ridge and a trough near
Guadalupe Island is supporting moderate to fresh N winds north of
20N between 120W and 130W. Combined seas are 6 to 7 ft in this
area. Moderate trade winds and 6 to 7 ft combined seas are also
evident south of the high pressure, from 10N to 25N west of 130W.
Gentle breezes and moderate seas in mixed N and S swell dominate
the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, expect the moderate to fresh east to southeast
winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to persist into Sun.
Seas of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to subside
slightly Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell. Farther
north, the trough near 20N120W will persist through mid week.
Expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas between
this trough and higher pressure to the northwest through mid
week, mainly north of the 20N and west of 125W.

$$
Christensen