492
AXPZ20 KNHC 072148
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends north of 02N along 87W moving west at 10
kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
occurring north of 08N between 89W-95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N87W to a 1011 mb low at 10N120W to 09N128W. The ITCZ extends
from 09N128W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is active from 07N-11N west of 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A trough near Guadalupe Island is breaking up the subtropical
ridge across the region, resulting in light to gentle breezes
across the entire Mexican offshore waters. Winds over the Gulf of
California are SE gentle to moderate. Seas are 4-6 ft over the
Pacific waters and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, aside from SE winds pulsing to fresh over the
N Gulf of California during the next two days, moderate or weaker
winds will persist through Thu across the Mexican offshore
waters. Looking ahead, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event may
begin Fri with strengthening winds and building seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

South of the monsoon trough, winds are S to SW gentle to
moderate. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
occurring north of 08N between 89W-95W in association with a
tropical wave. North of the monsoon trough, the winds are light
to gentle. Seas across the waters are 4-6 ft in S swell.

For the forecast, quiescent marine conditions will prevail over
the Central American and Equatorial waters for the next several
days. Looking ahead, a gap wind event may begin over the Gulf of
Papagayo region Fri with strengthening winds and building seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 33N136W. The gradient
between the high and a trough near Guadalupe Island is supporting
moderate to fresh N winds north of 22N between 122W-134W.
Combined seas are 6-7 ft in this area. Moderate NE trade winds
and 6-8 ft combined seas are also evident south of the high
pressure from 09N-22N west of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds and
5-7 ft seas in mixed N and S swell dominate the remainder of the
basin.

For the forecast, the trough near Guadalupe Island will persist
through mid week. Expect moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5-7
ft seas between this trough and higher pressure to the northwest
through mid week, mainly north of the 20N and west of 125W. The
tradewinds will be weaker than usual with only gentle to moderate
NE winds between 10N-22N for the next several days. Expect the
moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon
trough to persist for the next several days. Seas of 6-8 ft will
prevail over the waters in mixed N and S swell through Thu.
Looking ahead, a large NE swell event will be reaching our 30N
border beginning on Fri, causing building seas west of 120W.

$$
Landsea