943
AXPZ20 KNHC 050957
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jul 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently downgraded Tropical Depression Aletta is centered east
of Socorro Island near 18.7N 108.7W at 05/0900 UTC, moving west-
northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within
60 nm of the center of the depression. Seas are still likely
near 11 ft close to the center. Aletta will continue to weaken,
and will likely become a remnant low tonight then dissipate by
early Sun as it moves west through the Revillagigedo Islands.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Aletta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 06N90W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12N115W to
08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to 07N135W to 09N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 11N east of
87W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Depression Aletta.

Pressures are generally lowering across northern Central America
and southern Mexico, ahead of Hurricane Beryl in the northwest
Caribbean. This pattern is supporting fresh to occasionally
strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, as
noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Farther north, an
earlier scatterometer pass showed fresh southerly winds over the
northern Gulf of California, associated with slightly lower than
normal pressure across the southern Colorado River Valley.

For the forecast, Aletta will move to 18.7N 109.9W this afternoon, become
a remnant low and then move to 18.3N 111.3W Sat morning, 17.9N
112.8W Sat afternoon, before dissipating Sun morning. Farther
south, fresh to occasionally strong northerly gap winds will
pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early Fri. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse across the northern Gulf of
California into early next week associated with lower pressure
over the Colorado River Valley. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present over the
offshore waters of Panama and Colombia. Meanwhile, mostly gentle
to moderate southwest winds are over the remainder of the
offshore waters. Seas across the waters north of 08N are 5 to 6
ft range due to long-period south swell. South of 08N, seas are
5 to 7 ft within SW swell across the rest of the Central America
and Colombia offshore waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue across
the Central America offshore waters through tonight, with
moderate to rough seas with these winds. Winds are also expected
to become moderate to fresh over the Galapagos Islands offshore
waters through Sat night, along with moderate to rough seas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of the
forecast waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and
locally rough seas may accompany some of the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1019 mb high pressure is centered near 32N125W, just east of a
weak surface trough along 135W north of 22N. This pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate winds across the basin, as noted in
earlier scatterometer satellite passes. Northerly swell to 8 ft
is noted across the waters north of 25N between 125W and 140W.
Moderate seas prevail elsewhere, except for a small area of seas
to 8 ft near the equator at 140W due to southerly swell.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 115W
through today, then expand beyond 115W through the weekend. Seas
of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to subside slightly
later Sat into Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell.

$$

Christensen