Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
898 FXUS66 KEKA 191122 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 422 AM PDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Quiet, dry, and climatologically normal weather is forecast to continue today. Interior temperatures creep back up into the triple digits Saturday, and there is a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday in Trinity county as well. && .DISCUSSION...Seasonably normal temperatures continue today as troughing persists aloft. The marine layer has compressed again overnight, relegating low cloud toward the immediate coast and bringing patchy fog to the coastal plain. Coastal stratus continues for the foreseeable future, with a chance of brief clearing each afternoon before the stratus reforms each night. Shortwave ridging is forecast to build aloft Saturday, bringing a return of triple-digit temperatures to Trinity and Lake counties, with above normal afternoon temperatures persisting into early next week. This feature is forecast to be accompanied by another push of mid-level monsoonal moisture from the SE and be quickly followed by a shortwave trough Saturday evening. Moisture content looks lower than the monsoonal push last week, and model soundings across the interior show a capped environment. Latest model guidance is indicating a weaker cap over NE Trinity and eastern Del Norte, primarily along the border with Siskiyou county late Saturday afternoon and evening. These areas look like they have the best chance for convective initiation...although while there is potential, confidence remains low on whether storms will develop or not. Guidance remains split on the balance of cap strength vs instability. Moisture exits to the NE Sunday, with warm and dry weather persisting next week. && .AVIATION...A shallow layer of coastal stratus has formed over the Redwood Coast late last night and early this morning, with LIFR conditions at both ACV and CEC. However, a weak short wave associated with the low pressure system off the coast of British Columbia could help deepen the marine layer into mid morning, possibly lifting conditions to IFR or MVFR at the coastal terminals. Like the last couple of days, the coastal stratus has potential to scatter or clear into the late morning or afternoon. Gusty north to northwest winds are expected this afternoon at all terminals with potential gusts from 20 to 25 knots, particularly for Mendocino and Lake counties. Coastal stratus is expected to redevelop at the coast later this evening and persist through the night. && .MARINE...Northerly winds continue to increase through the southern marine zones. In the southern outer zone, small craft conditions continue as winds increase and cause steeper seas. South of Cape Mendocino, northerly gusts from 25 to 30 kt are expected with steep seas from 6 to 7 feet. Northerly winds will continue a gradual increase through the weekend, particularly in the southern waters. These conditions are forecast to spread into the northern zones by the weekend, as well. Gale conditions look probable as early as Sunday night. A small, long period SW swell will also reside in the waters through Friday. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png