661
FXUS63 KEAX 131920
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
220 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions are expected through at least Monday,
  with max afternoon heat indices in the 100 to 110 degree range.

- Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
  however organized severe weather is not expected at this
  time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Persistent morning storms and associated cloud cover has held
temperatures in check through early afternoon. However, continued
clearing will allow highs to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s
and with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat index values will
still reach 95 to 105 by late afternoon. Tonight, there is a low
confidence scenario for scattered storms as some models indicate
isentropic ascent that may aid in a few storms developing across
northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. Continued WAA overnight
and scattered to broken cloud cover will keep lows in the mid to
upper 70s. Tomorrow, a upper level ridge axis that is currently over
the Four Corners region will have pushed slowly eastward into the
eastern Rockies. This will provide height rises across the area and
with continued WAA at the surface highs are expected to soar into
the mid to upper 90s with heat index vales in the 103 to 110 range.
Monday, the area moves even further under the influence of the upper
ridge, the axis of which will still remain west of the area. This
will result in highs in the mid 90s to near 100 with heat index
values in the 105 to 110 range.

Monday night into Tuesday a upper level trough will dig from the
northern Plains into the into the western Great Lakes. This will sag
a cold front into the area late Tuesday into Tuesday night with a
few sub-severe thunderstorms possible. This front will continue to
slowly sag through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday continuing
storm chances and cooling temperatures into the upper 70s to lower
80s. Wednesday night into Thursday a Canadian surface high will
build into the region bringing dry and below normal temperatures.
Highs Thursday will remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s. This
surface high looks to remain in control trough at least early next
weekend with highs remain in the low to mid 80s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

VFR conds are expected to prevail thru the pd. Sct cu btn 3-4kft
is expected thru 00Z-02Z aft which sct-bkn mid lvl clouds are
expected. Winds will be out of the south btn 10-15kts with gusts
to 20-25kts thru 00Z-02Z aft which winds will diminish to around
10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-011>016-
     020>023-028>030-037-043.
     Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ017-
     024-025-031>033-038>040-044>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73