Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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056 FXUS63 KEAX 102317 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 617 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Ongoing scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop this afternoon into tonight. The strongest cells may produce strong to severe conditions with strong wind gusts being the primary threat. - Another round of isolated thunderstorms is possible Thursday afternoon through the night. Severe weather is not expected at this time. - Increasing heat and humidity expected late this week into early next week. Sunday and Monday are expected to be the worst days with heat indices exceeding triple digits. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 In the upper levels, there is troughing just to the northeast of the area and ridging over western CONUS. At the surface, winds are out of the west with a surface low to the east. Currently, a mid-level shortwave is moving through the area and some scattered thunderstorms have developed. While CAPE values range from 2,000- 3,500 J/kg for northern MO (highest values over northwestern MO), bulk shear values are very weak. Strong gusty winds seem to be the primary threat at this time. Some cells have already produced 57 mph winds. Some hail up to quarter-size is also possible with the strongest storms. A severe watch has been issued for northern MO extending as far south as a line from Randolph to Doniphan (KS). These storms are expected to impact the area through the evening and move out a little after midnight. Another shortwave moves through the flow which could lead to an additional round of showers and thunderstorms for the area Thursday afternoon/evening. CAPE values through the area range from 1,500- 2,000 J/kg and lapse rates around 7 degrees C/km suggest decent instability. However, bulk shear values ranging from 20-30 knots point to storms with shorter lifespans and being isolated to scattered in nature. Confidence is fairly low in the severe threat at this time. On Friday, a surface low develops to the west of the area, and shifts winds to the south. With warmer, more saturated air to south, expect heat and humidity to increase. Heat indices for Friday are expected to remain just shy of triple digits. Friday night, a thermal ridge noses into the area along with an intensifying low- level jet combining to further drive heat and humidity. This will lead to warmer temperatures for the start of the weekend. This setup continues through the weekend into the start of next week. Heat indices for Sunday and Monday are expected range from 100-110 degrees F. We will closely monitor conditions to see if heat headlines will be necessary. Hot and humid conditions are anticipated to last through next Tuesday. Next Wednesday, looks to be pleasant with high temperatures in the mid to high 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 617 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024 Primarily VFR conditions expected. Some probability for rain to reach terminal space late this evening into the overnight hours. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Blair