948
FXUS63 KEAX 121736
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1236 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible again late tonight
  into Saturday morning. A few storms could be strong to
  marginally severe.

- Dangerous heat likely for Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Isolated convection continues this morning across the region,
with the greatest coverage of storms currently over eastern
Kansas near the nose of a 25 to 30 knot southwesterly oriented
low level jet coinciding with modestly steep mid level lapse
rates and around 2000 J/kg of SB CAPE. This convection will
likely continue for a few more hours, slowly sagging
southeastward due to 10 knots of northwesterly steering flow.
The low level jet relaxed by later this morning with convection
dying with it. Meanwhile, the stout mid level high out west
migrates ever so slightly to the east toward the Four Corners
region this afternoon. This sends slightly higher mid level
heights over the region, and should help send high temperatures
several degrees higher this afternoon compared to yesterday
(upper 80s to lower 90s).

As we head into late tonight, another southwesterly oriented
low level jet is expected to develop, with modest low level warm
air advection overspreading the region. Model soundings suggest
up to 2000 to 2500 J/kg of ML CAPE with 20 to 25 knots of
shear, which would support a conditional threat for strong to
severe storms, similar to what we saw last night into earlier
this morning. Additionally, PWAT values on the order of 1.8" to
2" would support the chance for localized moderate to heavy
rainfall, similar to what we saw last night where up to 4-5" of
rain fell over a small area of eastern Leavenworth County near
Lansing, KS. Most recent CAMs, most notably the 6z HRRR,
initiates convection over NW Missouri by around 3 AM Saturday
morning, with this expanding in coverage and moving to the
southeast within the northwesterly flow regime through the
remainder of the morning hours.

By Saturday afternoon, the anticyclone over the Four Corner
strengthens even more, with mid level heights increasing yet
again over our region. This should send temperatures even
warmer, with highs into the mid 90s for much of the region,
although some lingering scattered showers/storms could yield
localized cooler regions. The heat only increases from there,
with temperatures flirting with triple digits by Monday, and
maximum afternoon heat indices in the 105 to 100 degree range
Monday afternoon. No heat headlines have been hoisted at this
time, but at least a Heat Advisory seems likely for Sunday and
Monday.

As we head into Tuesday, a trough pivots out of Canada into the
Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region, sending a cold
front toward the region from the north. The big question is just
how quickly the front makes it into the region, which will have
a large impact on the high temperatures for Tuesday afternoon.
As of now, models suggest the front making it as far south as
the Interstate 70 corridor by around mid to late afternoon. This
would yield cooler highs over northern Missouri, but keep
temperatures and heat indices near heat advisory criteria for
locations along and south of Interstate 70 through Tuesday
afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday
afternoon through early Wednesday morning with the frontal
passage. The front should be completely through the region by
Wednesday morning, with cooler temperatures moving in behind it,
offering a welcome reprieve from the heat for Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last through the day. There is a
chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms after
midnight tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Williams
AVIATION...Collier