453
FXUS63 KEAX 052315
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonal temperatures expected through the weekend with below
normal lows tonight.

- Rain chances return to the region Saturday night, with the
  potential for locally heavy rainfall Sunday night. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Surface high pressure across western Kansas
is leading to a well needed respite to the active weather as of
late. Dry air mass with dew point in the upper 50s-lower 60s and
clearing skies overnight will allow temperatures to fall back into
the lower 60s, about 5 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Surface ridge across the region tomorrow morning gradually shift east
with return flow increasing throughout the day.  As it does south,
southerly winds increase, but moisture is slow to increase as it has
to build into the region from the southern plains. As such, Saturday
will be a fairly pleasant summer day across the region with dew
points in the lower 60s. Short wave moving from the western Dakotas
on Saturday is expected to move into the Upper Midwest Saturday
night.  As it builds into the region, showers and thunderstorms will
be possible mainly north in portions of the Upper Midwest, mainly
north of the forecast area.  Could see this area of convection build
southward Saturday night as low level jet helps transport low level
warm air and moisture northward. This may lead to the development of
elevated non-severe thunderstorms mainly across northern and central
Missouri.

Moisture and low level warm air continues to build across the region
on Sunday as a series of weak waves move through the region.  This
could lead to additional shower and thunderstorm activity about the
region, but mid-level wind shear appears to be quite limited leading
to limited severe potential but could lead to slow storm motions.
Precipitable water approaches 2" by late later in the day on Sunday
as potential boundary approaches from the north.  With boundary
shifting southward, could see some training along the front in an
environment with deep warm cloud depths potentially leading to
locally heavy rainfall.

Slow moving evolving pattern is expected to keep mid-level
troughiness through at least the early portions of next week across
the central US as remnants of tropical storm Beryl builds northward
into Texas. This system is expected to lift northeast into the
Tennessee Valley late week, but may lead to a slowly changing
pattern next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Some lingering diurnal cu remains at all TAF sites, but guidance
is increasingly favoring clouds clearing out going into the
overnight. Precipitation off to the west continues to dissipate,
so keeping mentions of precipitation out of TAFs. Winds will
calm and shift from the northwest towards the west/southwest
throughout the forecast period. Winds will continue to shift
towards the south going into tomorrow with building high
pressure.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...SPG/Pesel