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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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256 FXUS63 KEAX 170500 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1200 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...Updated 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... * Much more enjoyable weather conditions within the forecast. * Cooler and drier conditions remainder of the work week. * Some chances for showers/storms return for the weekend, but cooler temperatures to remain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A couple areas of robust/severe convection this morning produced swaths of high winds, power outages, and other damage, primarily west of and into the western KC metro and roughly along Highway 24. Outflows from these storms pushed southward, and combined with lingering cloud cover, have done well to suppress originally forecast high temperatures. Have bumped them down a couple of degrees, but did not get too aggressive with thinning mid-high level cloud cover and only needing a couple hours of sunshine to quickly boost temperatures back up this time of the year. Regardless, doubt there are many complaints given temperature conditions the previous couple of days. Another effect of the morning convection and outflows has been to help suppress the northward rebound of the warm front. In conjunction with the area of high pressure dropping through the northern and central plains, hi-res guidance has latched onto and been consistent in pushing nocturnal convection south of the CWA and keeping it primarily in the SGF/LSX/PAH areas. With that in mind, have trimmed PoPs overnight, but did not go completely dry just yet. Aforementioned area of high pressure and large scale NW flow aloft then dominates the region for the remainder of the work week. Bank on quiet and much more pleasant sensible weather conditions as highs fall back into the upper 70s to 80s and dew points falling into the 50s/60s. Amongst the flagship synoptic models, agreement/consistency remains unusually strong into/through the weekend. Expect a shortwave trough to drop down through the larger NW flow, which will reintroduce PoPs to the forecast by Saturday into Sunday. Some uncertainty into evolution of the shortwave trough late weekend into early next week. Building high pressure over Atlantic and SE US looks to stall the shortwave, potentially keeping it in the area into mid-week before being absorbed into the Great Lakes/Hudson Bay longwave trough. Main consequence here would be lingering PoPs and cool conditions. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1157 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Shower activity has ended this evening leaving mostly clear skies. VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. A few cumulus clouds may develop Wednesday afternoon. Winds generally less than 10 kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Krull