439
FXUS63 KEAX 182320
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...Updated 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Nice, quiet weather conditions expected for today and tomorrow
  with below normal temperatures across the area.

- There is a potential for scattered showers and storms through
  the region on Saturday lasting through the middle of next
  week. The severe weather threat appears low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

In the upper levels, there is broad ridging over western CONUS with
west-northwesterly flow over the region. At the surface, there is a
high just to our north that has been keeping high temperatures in
the low 80s. This happens to be around 5-7 degrees lower than normal
temperatures for this time of year. The high is expected to slowly
begin to drift to the east over the next few days. As a result,
pleasant weather is expected for today and tomorrow with highs in
upper 70s to low 80s.

Saturday a mid-level trough develops to the north of the area. At
the surface, a low develops over SD with its associated cold front.
Our winds will shift to the south as our region enters the warm
sector, however warmer air (upper 80s to low 90s) is expected to
stay to the south keeping our high temperatures in the upper 70s to
low 80s. There is a chance for showers and storms with the passage
of the frontal boundary Saturday morning. At this time, coverage
seems to be isolated to scattered in nature with limited shear and
instability. No severe conditions are expected with these storms at
this time. These showers and storms are expected to move to the east
of the area by the evening.

This surface low is expected to linger over the region through next
week which will provide multiple opportunities for precipitation.
High temperatures into next week are expected to stay in the 80s
which should be a nice break from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions expected through TAF period. A few cumulus clouds
may develop Friday afternoon. Winds generally less than 10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Krull