390
FXUS63 KEAX 070518
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1218 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms are possible this evening in NW Missouri. An
  isolated strong storm producing large hail or damaging winds
  is possible.

- Additional storms are possible Sunday into Monday.  These storms
are not expected to be severe.

- Seasonal temperatures are expected much of the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Surface high pressure over the southern
Mississippi Valley is expected to migrate east leading to increasing
southerly flow. A series of phased short waves across the
Northern Plains have lead to areas of convection across eastern
Nebraska and eastern North Dakota into western Minnesota. This
wave to the south may lead to showers and thunderstorms across
northern Missouri this evening, mainly in northwest Missouri
where CAPE is 500-1500 J/kg and 0-6 km effective shear is 30-35
knots. This may result in enough organization to produce a
marginally strong to severe storm with large hail or damaging
winds.

Low level jet develops across the central plains tonight
transporting moisture north from eastern TX/Oklahoma into central
KS.  CAMs develop some storms develop within the mass convergence in
central Kansas, that gradually weaken toward daybreak in eastern KS.

Tough forecast on Sunday with the lack of focus as low level
moisture continues to build under a weakly capped atmosphere. Upper
level support remains through the day as upper level jet streak from
eastern KS builds  into the western Great Lakes. Precipitable water
values increase to near 1.75"- near the 90th percentile for the
date.  In general, it appears that convection will have a mean storm
motion around 25 knots, so despite lowered flash flood guidance with
wet conditions as of late, precipitation amounts generally look to
be less than half an inch with locally higher amounts.

Low level jet increases through the evening hours on Sunday, with
mass convergence across the area.  Cloud cover and weakly capped
atmosphere throughout the day on Sunday is somewhat self limiting,
and the slight increase in shear Sunday night will likely not be
fully realized.

Long-standing mid level trough remains across the central US through
mid week as hurricane Beryl makes landfall in eastern TX and pushes
north before eventually getting wrapped into the flow across
northern Arkansas into southern Missouri.  With upper level support
remaining across the region through Tuesday, can`t entirely rule out
the chance of a pop up storm though the bulk of the convection looks
to be closely tied to the remnants of Beryl.

Temperatures look to be largely seasonal this next week, with the
greatest uncertainty on Sunday into Monday when convection and
clouds may lower expectations some.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Showers and storms near KSTJ will move off towards the east and help
clear out all TAF sites going into the overnight and morning
tomorrow. A wind shift out of the southwest will occur by the
afternoon tomorrow, with the possibility of showers and
thunderstorms once again. CAMs have continuously disagreed on the
coverage, timing, and intensity of precipitation tomorrow, but the
confidence of precipitation occurring at all TAF sites sometime
tomorrow afternoon remains consistent across previous
forecasts. As such, have elected to place a PROB30 group around
18z to loosely account for the best development of rain showers
for the area. Closer to the time of thunderstorm development,
there may be greater confidence in timing of exact storm modes
and impacts to TAF sites, but unfortunately this has not
improved since the last TAF issuance. Otherwise, after this
precipitation exits tomorrow around 0z, expecting ceilings to
lift once more with winds remaining out of the southwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...SPG/CDB