131
FXUS63 KEAX 080810
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
310 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Beryl will bring increased
  chances for showers and thunderstorms to portions of central
  and northeastern Missouri tonight and Tuesday. No severe
  weather is expected. Excessive rainfall is expected to occur
  south and east of our forecast area.

- A system digging from the Upper Midwest on Wednesday may bring
  isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the region during the
  afternoon (15 to 35 percent chance). Severe weather chances
  remain low.

- A substantial warm-up is anticipated at the end of the week
  through next weekend. Probabilities of temperatures exceeding
  95 degrees increase to 40 to 70 percent by next Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

There are four primary meteorological features dominating the
weather across the conterminous U.S. to start off the week. The
first is a scorching upper ridge in the western U.S., leading to
all-time record heat in much of the West this weekend and
continuing for the next few days. The second is a positively-
tilted trough moving through the northern Plains and the Upper
Midwest, which has led to scattered storms through much of the
northern and central U.S. during the past 24 hours. The third is
a quasi-persistent subtropical ridge in the Southeast and
adjacent western Atlantic. The fourth is TC Beryl, imminently
approaching the middle Texas coast at 2 am. Beryl`s path is
generally dictated by the three other features, with a general
trajectory to the north and gradually northeast with time during
the next 48 hours.

The main forecast challenge for our area is ascertaining just
how much of an impact Beryl will have. Models have continued to
trend slightly westward with the track after landfall, though
this trend has slowed (by which I mean -- the westward shift is
becoming less and less with each consensus model run).
Nevertheless, examination of the various model ensembles
suggests that there is a fairly high likelihood (>60 percent
chance) that rain and a few thunderstorms directly tied to
Beryl`s remnants will affect southern/eastern portions of the
CWA. Fortunately, the surface low`s track is expected to be well
southeast, keeping the heaviest (and likely excessive) rainfall
to our southeast as well. Nevertheless, felt the need to
increase PoPs generally southeast of a Pleasanton, KS, to
Kirksville, MO, line tonight and Tuesday as Beryl makes its
closest approach to the area.

Overall rainfall totals will have a sharp gradient, with areas
northwest of the aforementioned line probably seeing little if
any precipitation from Beryl, and areas close to our CWA border
perhaps reaching/exceeding half an inch. It is instructive to
point out that there is about a county of distance between those
totals and 1.5-2 inches and another county or so before totals
exceed 2.5 inches. This is to say, there is not a lot of room
for error with the track of Beryl. A farther-northwest track of
30-50 miles would bring considerably heavier totals to our
border counties, whereas a farther-east track of 30-50 miles
makes this a relative snooze event for our CWA entirely.

A definite upside to Beryl`s influence in our region is that
temperatures will remain mild, generally in the 80s today and
Tuesday (and perhaps even in the 70s in central Missouri, in
closer proximity to the heavier precipitation from Beryl). Beryl
will accelerate northeastward away from the central U.S. Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with some influence from a kicker
perturbation digging southward from south-central Canada. Models
are trending a little stronger and a little westward with this
vorticity maximum. With steep lapse rates in the low and middle
levels, favorably cool midlevel air, and favorable timing of the
perturbation and downstream large-scale lift, think scattered
convection is a good bet on Wednesday afternoon. This will be
especially true to the north of the CWA, but the perturbation
will be close enough to our area to result in some storms,
especially in northern and northeast Missouri. Increased PoPs to
20 to 40 percent generally north of I-70 and east of I-29 for
Wednesday afternoon, and these may need to be raised further if
model trends persist. This pattern will keep hotter temperatures
at bay for another day, with 80s across the area once again.

As the trough pivots to the Great Lakes on Thursday, the western
U.S. ridge begins to become more influential in the central
Plains Thursday and beyond. Temperatures will warm gradually but
consistently through the weekend, with mainly dry conditions
given predominant large-scale descent. By late in the weekend,
mid 90s seem quite probable across the area. Probabilities of
exceeding 95 degrees reach 40 to 70 percent from east to west by
Monday. Heat indices will, of course, be climbing as well, with
100s quite likely (>75 percent chance) by early next week. Oh
joy.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Some spotty showers have begun to develop around TAF sites, and
even a couple of thunderstorms near STJ, but these are not
expected to be the prevailing weather condition (and may not
even affect the terminals directly). As a result, have included
VCSH or VCTS mention at the KC and St. Joseph terminals through
08z. However, any impacts will be short-lived, with VFR
conditions prevailing the rest of tonight and through the day
Monday. Winds will shift to the west/northwest by the morning
with a boundary coming in from the northwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...CMS/SPG