313
FXUS63 KEAX 061918
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
218 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms are possible this evening in NW Missouri. An
oslated strong storm producing large hail or damaging winds is
possible.

- Additional storms are possible Sunday into Monday.  These storms
are not expected to be severe.

- Seasonal temperatures are expected much of the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Surface high pressure over the southern
Mississippi Valley is expected to migrate east leading to increasing
southerly flow. A series of phased short waves across ther Northern
Plains have lead to areas of convection across eastern Nebraska and
eastern North Dakota into western Minnesota. This wave to the south
may lead to showers and thunderstorms across northern Missouri this
evening, mainly in northwest Missouri where CAPE is 500-1500 J/kg
and 0-6 km effective shear is 30-35 knots.  This may result in
enough organization to produce a marginally strong to severe storm
with large hail or damaging winds.

Low level jet develops across the central plains tonight
transporting moisture north from eastern TX/Oklahoma into central
KS.  CAMs develop some storms develop within the mass convergence in
central Kansas, that gradually weaken toward daybreak in eastern KS.

Tough forecast on Sunday with the lack of focus as low level
moisture continues to build under a weakly capped atmosphere. Upper
level support remains through the day as upper level jet streak from
eastern KS builds  into the western Great Lakes. Precipitable water
values increase to near 1.75"- near the 90th percentile for the
date.  In general, it appears that convection will have a mean storm
motion around 25 knots, so despite lowered flash flood guidance with
wet conditions as of late, precipitation amounts generally look to
be less than half an inch with locally higher amounts.

Low level jet increases through the evening hours on Sunday, with
mass convergence across the area.  Cloud cover and weakly capped
atmosphere throughout the day on Sunday is somewhat self limiting,
and the slight increase in shear Sunday night will likely not be
fully realized.

Long-standing mid level trough remains across the central US through
mid week as hurricane Beryl makes landfall in eastern TX and pushes
north before eventually getting wrapped into the flow across
northern Arkansas into southern Missouri.  With upper level support
remaining across the region through Tuesday, can`t entirely rule out
the chance of a pop up storm though the bulk of the convection looks
to be closely tied to the remanants of Beryl.

Temperatures look to be largely seasonal this next week, with the
greatest uncertainty on Sunday into Monday when convection and
clouds may lower expectations some.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions through the period. Could see some fair weather
cumulus across central and eastern Missouri this afternoon.
Potentnial for a few storms this evening across northern
Missouri after 00Z, but should be confined to areas north of
highway 36. Rain chances increase across the region throughout
the day on Sunday, though timing is ill- defined at this point
so left the mention out at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT