Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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845 FXUS63 KEAX 051112 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 612 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonal temperatures expected this weekend with much less humidity. - Thunderstorm chances increase late Saturday night into Sunday and continue Sunday night. - Seasonal temperatures likely mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A cooler and drier air mass is moving into the area this morning with dew points falling into the lower 60s and air temperatures in the middle 60s early this morning. That cooler and drier high pressure area will push through eastern KS and western MO through the day, leading to slightly below normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 80s. But it will be the cooler dew point temperatures in the 60s that will lead to much lower humidity values this afternoon compared to previous days. That high pressure will move to our south tonight into Saturday, with winds becoming southerly to southwesterly again. This will help to warm temperatures up to be close to normal, with highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday. Dew points will be slower to respond though and we`ll see another day with dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Southerly low-level flow will strengthen Saturday night, with a low-level jet of 35-40kts nosing into the area ahead of a subtle mid-level shortwave. This will bring the initial chances for showers and storms to the area, likely after midnight Saturday night/ Sunday morning, and mainly for the northwestern third of the forecast. Those chances spread south and east through the day Sunday as broad upper troughing digs into the central and northern Plains and another mid-level shortwave tracks east out of KS. Severe weather chances look low Sunday afternoon as instability looks limited, mainly due to increased cloud cover and likely ongoing showers/ storms. But shear also looks relatively weak due to weaker mid and upper flow. With increased cloud cover and good potential for showers and storms in the area, highs again look to be slightly below normal with temperatures in the low to mid 80s likely. This trend of increased cloud cover and potential for showers and storms continues into Monday ahead of a stronger shortwave trough moving through the region. Temperatures trend back to near normal levels from Tuesday through the end of the week, with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s expected. This looks to be mostly due to the anomalously low 500mb heights, prevalent earlier in the week, eroding and trending to more neutral values or even slight positive anomalies, by the end of the week. Additionally, as that upper troughing shifts east, it likely will take the moisture associated with what`s left of Beryl southeast of the forecast area late next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will be primarily from the northwest today, with speeds around 10 kt and occasional gusts to 20 kt or so. Winds should diminish quickly near/after sunset, becoming light and variable overnight. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CMS