Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
471 ACUS02 KWNS 040548 SWODY2 SPC AC 040546 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper Ohio Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low in the Upper Midwest will continue eastward on Saturday before becoming more of an open wave by Saturday morning. A potent mid-level jet is anticipated across parts of the upper Ohio Valley during the afternoon. At the surface, a low in the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity will also track eastward, with a attendant cold front moving through the Ohio Valley by mid/late afternoon and evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Uncertainty remains relatively high in the degree of surface-based destabilization that will occur by the afternoon. Morning showers/thunderstorms are possible within a weak warm advection regime. Further, cloud cover from the remnants of convection moving through the lower Ohio Valley on Thursday night may also have an impact. Given the moist airmass (low 70s F dewpoints), broken cloud cover would still allow 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE (perhaps near 2000 J/kg in the southernmost areas). Effective shear will range from 35 kts to the south and increase to around 50 kts to the north. On the lower end of destabilization, only isolated cells would be likely. Should greater surface heating occur, a linear segment or two could develop. Damaging winds and small hail are possible with the strongest storms. ...Blue Ridge... Strong heating is expected within a high PWAT airmass. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s F. Though mid-level heights will remain neutral, convection is probable within the terrain. Weak deep-layer shear and similarly weak anvil-level flow should keep storm organization minimal. Confidence in more than isolated wet microbursts is too low for highlights. ..Wendt.. 07/04/2024 $$