040
ACUS02 KWNS 161722
SWODY2
SPC AC 161720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the
Carolinas into New England on Wednesday, with a corridor of greater
coverage from northeast Virginia into the Hudson Valley and adjacent
southern Vermont/western Massachusetts. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains as well.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is expected to shift eastward, with some
southward digging into the northern Mid-Atlantic states on
Wednesday. In the West, an upper-level ridge is expected to amplify
somewhat roughly over the Divide. A shortwave trough will slide
northward through the Northwest during the period along the western
flank of the upper ridge. At the surface, a cold front will be
situated from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. A surface
trough will deepen near the Blue Ridge during the afternoon.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop
along/ahead of the cold front and surface trough during the
afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will be rather weak, strong
heating will support 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, particularly east of
the Blue Ridge. Enhanced mid-level winds with the approaching trough
should support at least modest storm organization. Shear will be
slightly greater within the northern Mid-Atlantic into parts of
southern New England. Buoyancy will decrease with northward extent,
however. The expectation is for a few clusters/linear segments, and
perhaps a marginal supercell or two, to pose a risk of primarily
damaging winds. Warm temperatures aloft should keep large hail
potential low.

...High Plains...
Upslope flow behind the cold front will push low-level moisture up
against the terrain. Dewpoints in the mid/upper 40s F are generally
expected by the afternoon, though some low 50s F are possible
especially farther to the east. Modest northwesterly flow aloft on
the western flank of the upper trough will support from 25 kts of
effective shear near the Raton to around 35 kts in eastern Wyoming
and the Nebraska Panhandle. Given the modest shear and relatively
dry boundary layer, storms are expected to be outflow dominant with
an attendant risk for severe winds. Some large hail threat could
occur within the first hour or two of storm initiation.

...ArkLaTex Vicinity...
An MCV from convection within parts of the Front Range on Tuesday
evening is expected to be over Oklahoma at the beginning of the
period. Heating ahead of this feature appears likely to support
scattered storms from parts of North Texas into the ArkLaTex. While
strong wind gusts are possible, the disorganized wind profile is not
expected to support and organized severe threat.

..Wendt.. 07/16/2024

$$