363
ACUS02 KWNS 110556
SWODY2
SPC AC 110555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple instances of severe gusts and perhaps hail are possible
across the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday).

...Synopsis...
Multiple impulses embedded in deamplifying cyclonic flow will
traverse the OH Valley into the Northeast as an upper-level
anticyclone dominates the Interior West and begins to impinge on the
Plains States tomorrow (Friday). While surface high pressure should
remain in place across much of the Intermountain West tomorrow,
surface lee troughing over the Plains will encourage a broad fetch
of rich low-level moisture across the MS Valley, which will continue
to advect northward through the period. By afternoon, thunderstorms
should develop over the northern High Plains. Given the increased
low-level moisture and modest deep-layer shear, a few thunderstorms
may become strong to severe.

...Northern High Plains...
By afternoon peak heating, a warm, well-mixed boundary layer will
become established across the northern High Plains, that in tandem
with the passing of a weak mid-level impulse pivoting around the
anticyclone, will support convective initiation. Forecast soundings
show the mixed boundary layer (and corresponding 9+ C/km lapse
rates) extending above 700 mb, suggesting that these storms should
be high-based in nature. Stronger flow aloft pivoting around the
anticyclone with the mid-level impulse should result in elongated
hodographs and subsequent potential for organized multicells capable
of a few severe gusts. An instance or two of hail may also accompany
the stronger storms cores in ND, where mid-level flow best coincides
with richer low-level moisture.

Strong WAA should continue across the northern Plains overnight,
potentially supporting the initiation of additional thunderstorms
over central ND. Some of the latest guidance suggests that a
southward-propagating MCS could develop. However, nocturnal static
stability should also be settling in, so it is unclear how prevalent
severe gusts could become. An east-southeastward expansion of severe
probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if the risk of a more
organized MCS becomes apparent.

..Squitieri.. 07/11/2024

$$