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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
363 ACUS02 KWNS 110556 SWODY2 SPC AC 110555 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe gusts and perhaps hail are possible across the northern High Plains tomorrow (Friday). ...Synopsis... Multiple impulses embedded in deamplifying cyclonic flow will traverse the OH Valley into the Northeast as an upper-level anticyclone dominates the Interior West and begins to impinge on the Plains States tomorrow (Friday). While surface high pressure should remain in place across much of the Intermountain West tomorrow, surface lee troughing over the Plains will encourage a broad fetch of rich low-level moisture across the MS Valley, which will continue to advect northward through the period. By afternoon, thunderstorms should develop over the northern High Plains. Given the increased low-level moisture and modest deep-layer shear, a few thunderstorms may become strong to severe. ...Northern High Plains... By afternoon peak heating, a warm, well-mixed boundary layer will become established across the northern High Plains, that in tandem with the passing of a weak mid-level impulse pivoting around the anticyclone, will support convective initiation. Forecast soundings show the mixed boundary layer (and corresponding 9+ C/km lapse rates) extending above 700 mb, suggesting that these storms should be high-based in nature. Stronger flow aloft pivoting around the anticyclone with the mid-level impulse should result in elongated hodographs and subsequent potential for organized multicells capable of a few severe gusts. An instance or two of hail may also accompany the stronger storms cores in ND, where mid-level flow best coincides with richer low-level moisture. Strong WAA should continue across the northern Plains overnight, potentially supporting the initiation of additional thunderstorms over central ND. Some of the latest guidance suggests that a southward-propagating MCS could develop. However, nocturnal static stability should also be settling in, so it is unclear how prevalent severe gusts could become. An east-southeastward expansion of severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if the risk of a more organized MCS becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 07/11/2024 $$