Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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334 FXUS63 KDVN 140707 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 207 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The heat continues for today and Monday with peak heat indices between 100 to 110 F...slightly offset by winds of 10 to 20 mph. - Strong isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight again, with low confidence on them occurring. Another organized round of heavy rain and severe weather is forecast Monday PM into Tuesday as a strong cold front arrives. - Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi River with most sites crested or cresting in the coming days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Our local area was brushed by strong convection late in the evening, affecting Stephenson co with heavy rain and gusty winds, while areas just east were greatly impacted by torrential rains. This ring of fire zone just to the northeast is forecast to be active again today, but could be a bit farther northeast than the past 24 hours. At the start of today, area wide, some very high based showers and storms could be ongoing on top of the LLJ position aimed into Wisconsin. This could bring some scattered activity for a few hours, with limited impacts to brief downpours. Otherwise, we`re closely watching the convective cluster moving through the Twin Cities this morning, as that could again brush the northeastern counties with stronger thunderstorms. Otherwise today will be hot and breezy! Like yesterday, a moist air mass, combined with peak crop evapotranspiration will help dew points rise to the 72 to 77 range, and with temperatures in the 90 to 94 range, heat indices will reach 100 to 105 in many areas. A heat advisory will be issued for all counties, from 1 PM to 8 PM. Tonight, a low chance exists that strong to severe storms can again brush our northeast is there, but most models continue to keep the action well northeast of our CWA. CAPE over 4000 will ensure any activity will be strong of it happens. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 204 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The hot weather will continue on Monday with chances for scattered showers and storms as a cold front gradually drops in from the north. Models continue to show a strong EML, but the frontal position could serve to erode that with time, especially after dark. The ample CAPE over 4000 J/KG would support strong storms, as would the increasing shear from the westerly flow aloft. For now, pops are in the 40-60% range by Monday night into Tuesday morning. The main threat for Monday night`s storms will be damaging winds, but another threat is heavy rainfall over 2 inches. We`ll advertise some heavy rain threat through the night Monday night, as the front timing has slowed, with less northwest flow establishing itself until later Tuesday. Tuesday night through the weekend ahead continue to appear cooler than normal, and extremely pleasant. Overnight lows well into the 50s are forecast on several nights, giving our air conditioning a bit of a break. ERVIN && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 An organized thunderstorm cluster near the Twin Cities as of 06Z will likely track into southwest Wisconsin by the pre-dawn hours. This will possibly impact DBQ near/shortly after daybreak (50 percent chance) while reaching MLI is a lesser chance (20%). Otherwise through early morning, patchy MVFR ceilings are possible mainly toward DBQ. South-southwest winds this afternoon will have gusts that should occasionally reach 20 kt and probably regularly exceed at MLI and BRL. As for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, confidence is low in whether they will occur, but if they happen they should be minimal coverage (20-30%). So not enough confidence to include mention in the TAFs at this point. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 938 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 The crest on the Mississippi River is now between Keithsburg, IL and Gladstone, IL (L/D 18). Upstream of New Boston (L/D 17) river levels continue to fall. New Boston and Keithsburg are just starting to show signs of falling. As the broad crest continues to attenuate, areas from Gladstone downstream to Gregory Landing should begin a very broad crest over the next day or two. Tributary Rivers: On the lower Cedar River near Conesville, IA, minor flooding continues. Over the next 24 to 36 hours the flooding is forecast to end. The lower Wapsipinicon River near Dewitt, IA will remain in moderate flood through mid-day Sunday before falling into minor flood. A fairly rapid drop in water levels will commence Sunday afternoon and night as backwater effects from the Mississippi River decrease. Minor flooding continues on the lower Iowa River at Oakville due to backwater effects from the Mississippi. With the broad crest on the Mississippi now just south of Keithsburg, IL, water levels on the lower Iowa River will slowly fall to and then remain around flood stage over the next four days. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Cousins HYDROLOGY...08