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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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741 FXUS63 KDVN 131115 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 615 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The Heat builds into the area today, and continues to expand through Monday. Heat indices in the lower 100s are possible today, and likely 100 to 105 Sunday and Monday. - Organized thunderstorms are possible late today and/or tonight, with an MCS moving southeast/south. This could bring gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. The next chance for organized storms is focused on Monday night`s cold frontal passage. - Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi River with most sites crested or cresting in the coming days. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Light winds, temperatures in the lower 70s, and dewpoints rising to the upper 60s to lower 70s are found across the area early today, substantially warmer than yesterday at this time. Mid clouds are noted on satellite over our area, but as of 2 AM, no showers have developed in this mid level WAA regime. We`ll watch conditions, but for now, the chances for morning storms remains under 20%. Today will focus on the building heat and humidity, but all eyes will be focused north of our area, as we watch southeastward moving convection in the Dakotas and Minnesota. There are two scenarios playing out today. One, the heat builds in, and so does the EML, resulting in hot, dry conditions through Monday. This is roughly 1/2 of available guidance. The other, which at the moment is supported by satellite/radar, shows several convective clusters moving southeast towards northern Illinois by this evening. This would generally arrive in our CWA after 7 PM, but could bring a wind gust threat to our northern counties. During the evening and overnight, as a LLJ is aimed directly at our area, around 35 to 45 kts, the cold pool could slowly propagate southwestward, resulting in a heavy rain swath over our northern 1/2 of the CWA. WPC and SPC are both on board with this second scenario, which is supported by the northwest flow aloft, diffluent thickness over our area, and LLJ position. It`s important to realize, that we often get a significant convective event as significant heat waves build in, so this potential should be no surprise. Cells would continue to move quickly during the overnight activity southeastward, but the convective axis of storms would slowly shift southward, thus a period of training is expected as the line slowly drops south. Sunday, after any storms move out early, it appears the heat will be in place through Monday, with only very low chances for thunder in the far north. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Heat indices both days are forecast in the 97 to 104 range. Both Sunday and Monday, 850mb temperatures are forecast to be 24 to 27C, which is strongly supportive of excessive heat. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Monday night, the cold front will move into our area, with storms possible along it, and just post frontal. Models continue to show a strong EML, but the frontal position could serve to erode that with time, especially after dark. The ample CAPE over 3000 J/KG would support strong storms, as would the increasing shear from the westerly flow aloft. For now, pops are in the 30-50% range Monday night, due to the potential of the EML holding back storm formation. Tuesday is a transition day into the far cooler air in the extended. Highs will be rather warm, but with decreasing humidity and gusty winds, the heat stress will be decreasing through the day. Wednesday though Saturday continue to look very pleasant, with highs in the 70s to low 80s, and lows in the 50s! && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Scattered to broken 2,500-6,000 ft ceilings this morning will give way to more of typical summer cumulus by 17Z. Spotty showers and a few storms (20% coverage) are probable through mid-afternoon, though mainly east of the Mississippi River. The main focus of the TAFs are thunderstorm potential late this afternoon into this evening. Organized thunderstorms in western Minnesota early this morning are likely to at least somewhat sustain themselves through the morning, and if they continue to or renew upstream in the early afternoon they will likely reach DBQ and even may get to CID and MLI this evening. Confidence is starting to nudge upward in this, and as such have inched up the timing of thunder mention in the TAFs and now included a TEMPO in the DBQ TAF for early evening. The potential for 35+ kt gusts will exist with any storms that do arrive late today through mid-evening too. Irregardless of weather organized storms move in early this evening, the air mass tonight will support at least scattered storm potential for the region. Also for late tonight, while southwest winds will increase to 35-40 kt at 1,500-4,000 ft, it presently looks a little below true LLWS thresholds. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1043 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 The crest on the Mississippi River is between New Boston, IL (L/D 17) and Keithsburg, IL. Areas upstream of New Boston through the Quad Cities are coming off a a broad crest. From Keithsburg, IL downstream to Gregory Landing, MO a broad crest will commence over the next 0.5 to 1.5 days. Tributary Rivers: On the lower Cedar River near Conesville, IA, minor flooding continues as water levels continue to fall. The lower Wapsipinicon River near Dewitt, IA will remain in moderate flood through Saturday. A fairly rapid drop in water levels will commence Saturday night as backwater effects from the Mississippi River decrease. Minor flooding continues on the lower Iowa River at Oakville due to backwater effects from the Mississippi. Once the broad crest on the Mississippi gets downstream of Keithsburg, IL, water levels on the lower Iowa River will slowly begin to fall. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ025-026-034-035. MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Friedlein HYDROLOGY...08