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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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315 FXUS63 KDVN 151150 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 650 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The heat continues for today and Monday with peak heat indices between 100 to 110 F. A Heat Advisory is in effect area-wide today until 8 PM but afternoon relief is possible north if storms arrive. - An Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe storms across the outlook area. Damaging winds are the primary hazard, but tornadoes will also be possible today. - Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi River with most sites crested. The Rock River is now expected to see flooding due to the heavy rains upstream in the past 24 hours. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Today is another day to closely monitor forecasts and warnings! Our area is set to be impacted by a damaging line of storms this afternoon and evening, with an abundance of observational and model data supporting the apex of a severe bowing line, moving through eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. SPC has our area in Enhanced, level 3 of 5, today, focusing primarily on damaging winds, but also noting a 5% tornado risk, and a low 2% hail risk. Today will be hot and humid, and while that will get handled by an advisory today (though some values may reach warning criteria in the south), the focus needs to be on severe weather during the afternoon and evening. This heat will be the pool of energy, CAPE we need to supply another round of severe storms. However, this time, we`re dealing with a strong trigger (mid level jet streak), focusing mechanism (front), and significant shear over 40 kts, and PWAT values over 2 inches and all those factors really add up to a potential high end event. The activity in eastern ND early today, will likely drop southeast into MN, but could trigger a few elevated cells into eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. Some CAMs do create a separate event from this activity, but that seems unlikely. Instead, it looks like air mass recovery will occur quickly today, with winds becoming southeast and increase to 10 to 15 mph. This is especially true over northern areas, where the mesohigh from last evening`s storms will be decaying. I expect storms to fire in central Iowa by mid afternoon, and will rapidly spread east and southeast. Damaging wind will be a threat from the onset, but with the backed winds in eastern Iowa and northern Illinois, STP values may exceed 2 in locations north of Interstate 80, supporting supercells and tornadoes during the afternoon and early evening. By early evening, an established bowing storm segment should be formed, moving east, with a comma head, and trailing line of cells. This will lay out a swath of heavy rainfall and wind, with guidance most supportive of this falling roughly along the Interstate 80 corridor, then sinking south during the evening. While the exact position is looking to go through our area, this event will fall into line once we know the position of backed winds and initial storms that trigger in central Iowa/northeast Iowa today. Once they are, the axis of most significant storms can be identified and communicated. After 9 PM, the mode of storms looks to become primarily heavy rain producing multicells storms, with the axis of heavy rain gradually sinking south through the late evening and overnight. Rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches will be common with this event, with some amounts in the late evening training supporting and additional 1" where training storms occur. Thus, this event could again impact rivers, especially with any amounts over northern Illinois, which is dealing with back to back heavy rainfall events in the past 36 hours. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Cooler and less humid air will move into the region behind a cold front by Tuesday and last through the end of the week. Overnight lows in the 50s are forecast on several nights, giving our air conditioning a bit of a break. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Patchy shallow fog will dissipate across the area by 13-1330Z. Southerly winds will increase with occasional gusts today, especially at airports along/south of I-80 where gusts as high as 25 kt may occur this afternoon. Isolated showers or storms (20-30 percent coverage) may sprout in the northeast quarter of Iowa, including near CID and DBQ between 16Z and 22Z, but confidence is low on this. The main story with the TAF is the high likelihood of growing storms into a quickly-moving storm complex expected late this afternoon through mid-evening over the area. These storms and especially the complex will be capable of severe winds, and likely will have temporary LIFR visibility in very heavy rainfall. Tried to incorporate that into two hour TEMPOs within the TAF, but naturally there is some uncertainty still with timing. Behind the storms later tonight, there could be again some fog/low cigs. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A broad crest on the Mississippi River is occurring from Gladstone, IL (L/D 18) down through Gregory Landing, MO. This crest will last up to two days. Upstream of Keithsburg, IL river levels are falling. Tributary Rivers: The Cedar River near Conesville, IA fell below flood stage last evening and will continue falling over the next week. The lower Wapsipinicon River near Dewitt, IA is expected to fall below flood stage around sunrise Monday morning. The rate of fall on the river has slowed down due to locally heavy rainfall overnight. Backwater effects from the Mississippi River continue to lessen on the lower Iowa River. The Iowa River at Oakville, IA is forecast to drop just below flood stage this evening but then remain near flood stage through the remainder of this week. River flood warning have been issued for Joslin and Moline given the additional 1-3 inch heavy rain falling on the basin this past evening following the 2 to 5 inch rainfall event just the night before. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089- 098-099. IL...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Friedlein HYDROLOGY...08