Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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655 FXUS63 KDVN 180738 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 238 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Much welcomed dry weather through the rest of the work week and into the weekend, followed by low slight chance to chance pops diurnally Sunday and Monday. - Moderate to major river flooding continues on the Mississippi River. The Rock River is now expected to see moderate flooding by the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Ahhh... Clear skies and temperatures in the lower to mid 50s are widespread over the Cornbelt this morning. As stated on the previous AFD, we could approach some record lows this morning in a few locations. Today and tonight, the 1024mb high pressure will be centered right over our area, resulting in very light winds and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, despite plenty of sunshine. This free Canadian air vacation looks to last at least through Saturday, with only a slight rise in temperatures expected in the period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 While surface high pressure remains in the Midwest through Sunday, a weak upper low is forecast to slowly drop into the Plains, and shift east into Iowa for Sunday and Monday, as it weakens. At the very least, this will allow for more of a diurnal increase in cloud cover each day, but should also allow for a isolated to scattered shower / storm chance. The flow aloft will be weak, and moisture depth appears limited. Thus, these pop/drop showers should not move quickly, and would only offer an isolated rainfall potential. Temperatures will be warming only modestly during this period, with dew point temperatures rising to only the lower to mid 60s, which is largely driven by evapotranspiration as opposed to moist advection. Highs in the lower to mid 80s are forecast Monday through Thursday. Lows in the lower to mid 60s are expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 High pressure continues to build into the Region from the Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley Region and be centered over the TAF locations by 19/00Z. Latest 0451Z IR satellite has clear skies across the region. Some high level clouds extended into parts of eastern Nebraska. Expect a few clouds possible later in TAF period. Otherwise expect VFR conditions and winds to be light during the TAF period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1125 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 The Mississippi River has crested at all sites, with some reaches continuing to experience somewhat stalled falls or steady trends over the next few days due to recent bouts of heavy rain, local run- off, and tributary input. L&D 19 at Keokuk and Gregory Landing will even experience secondary rises into the weekend. Tributary Rivers: The recent rounds of heavy rain on the Rock River basin will continue to produce significant rises on the Rock, but after assessing the extent of run-off and upstream flow trends, Joslin and Moline are now projected to remain below the Major flood stage. The Rock at Como will be in Minor flood through Friday evening. The Pecatonica River is projected to rise into Minor flood at Freeport IL Friday night. The lower Wapsipinicon River near Dewitt, IA performed a secondary crest around 11.2 feet yesterday/Tuesday evening, but is now dropping below flood stage. With the dry weather into the weekend, the Wapsi is now expected to remain in the decline mode and remain below the flood stage. Backwater effects from the Mississippi River will keep the lower Iowa River just below flood stage through early next week. Further south, torrential rainfall and run-off from Monday night may produce a large rise to action stage on the La Moine River near Colmar in west central IL by Thursday. But the extent and speed is still somewhat uncertain and will have to watch river rise trends over the next 24 hours. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Record Low Temperatures: July 18: KBRL: 53 in 1924 KCID: 49 in 2009 KDBQ: 51 in 1979 KMLI: 54 in 2014 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Holicky HYDROLOGY...12 CLIMATE...Gross